Journal of Economic Research
Year:2008 | Volume:- | Issue:81|Papers Count:12

In this paper, economic convergence in selected OIC (36 countries) is studied. The convergence hypothesis is tested through three approaches: Beta convergence, Sigma convergence, and time series model. OLS is used for estimating the cross section model and cross variance is used to test the distributive model. For analyzing time series model, we used Augmented Dicky Fuller test. Beta convergence and Sigma convergence are approved by the sample. Analyzing time series model, we found that OIC include several clubs. Some go down and converge to the cross section mean, others go up and converge to the mean, and the third group diverges.

This article is a comparative study of estimation power of artificial neural networks and autoregressive time series models in inflation forecasting. Using 37 years Iran’s inflation data, neural networks performs better on average for short horizons than autoregressive models. This study shows usefulness of early stopping technique in learning stage of neural networks for estimating time series.

The study of the role of money in the economy of developing countries, and its impact on economic variables, analysis of monetary policies, and other related issues are of paramount importance in economic planning. Considering the above-mentioned points and also the realities of Iranian economy, it is quite vital to scientifically specify the long-term trend of money supply through investigation of modern theories. In addition, we try to investigate the welfare effects of money supply in Iran and to calculate the related optimum quantity of money. Determining the optimum quantity of money will help us to see whether the real money is lower or higher than the optimum quantity which guides us to formulate proper monetary policies. In this respect, therefore, we are able to weaken or eradicate the monetary roots of inflation and unemployment. For practical purposes, we use the collected data on Iranian economy (1956-2003) by proper dynamic optimization model solved by Excel.The results indicate that the real quantity of money is lower than its optimum quantity in Iran and that increasing the real quantity will have a positive effect on the economy.

The main purpose of this paper is to present methods and recent development in the literature of intra industry trade (IIT) measuring. The case study also is carried out for Iranian manufacturing industries during time period 1997-2003. For this, Iran's foreign trade data was collected, processed, and then used to estimate IIT indices with respect to recent literature developments in IIT measuring. Based on theoretical literature, Weighted Grubel and Loyd index and Fontagn'e & Freudenberg Trade types index are the most important static IIT indices. Furthermore, Briilhart index and Azhar & Elliott index are the most important dynamic IIT indices. Empirical results indicate low but increasing IIT in manufacturing industries of Iran. Furthermore, an important part of this IIT is devoted to Vertical Intra Industry (VIIT). Marginal IIT of Iran's manufacturing industries also is low but overwhelming. In other words, Iran's foreign trade change is mainly due to inter-industry trade. Thus, it seems that currently Iran's foreign trade is mainly based on comparative advantage. Generally speaking, this study is important due to increasing IIT studies and IIT importance for developing non oil exports for Iran.

Technical analysis is essentially the search for recurrent and predictable patterns in stock prices. Technical analysis Rules (so called technical trading rules), whiles they are various forms of it, aim in general at identifying the initiation of new trends. In this study, we evaluate the profitability of 46 popular technical trading rules such as Moving average, Trading range breakout, Bollinger bands, Stochastic, RSI and MACD in 22 company in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) from 1995-2005. The small size, short-selling constraints, lack of analyst coverage, and loose insider trading regulation suggest that the TSE equity market may be less efficient. This makes Technical analysis to be potentially more profitable. To overcome the shortfalls of the t-test methodology within our test sample, the significance of the technical trading rules are analyzed using the Bootstrap methodology with Random Walk null models. The numerical results indicate that technical trading rules have predictive ability in the mentioned 22 companies. This result reject the null hypothesis that the returns to be earned from applying trading rules values are equal to those achieved from a naive buy and hold strategy. This Research also illustrates that among all 46 Technical trading rules, Moving average and Stochastic are the most profitability trading rules.

High Economic growth rate is one of the targets that governments always have paid attention to it. In economic growth literature, quantitative and qualitative increase in production factors has been considered as boosting factors of growth. This paper has attempted to consider the effect of investment security on economic growth in Islamic Republic of Iran and formulation of an economic growth model with investment security variables.For this purpose, variables which have effect on investment security have been recognized, then econometric models of economic growth have been achieved by using variables which have effect on economic growth like investment security(IS), production factors, labor (L) and capital (K). These factors have been analyzed and processed to achieve different models of economic growth.Results are compatible with economic theories and are statistically significant at five percent level. The results show the positive effect of investment security on economic growth. For calculating investment security variable we used compound of PRS institute's results then the achieved factors have been weighted, then qualitative investment security for the time series 1984 to 2005 with two separate  periods (1984 to 1994) and (1995 to 2005) have been analyzed.

There are two main reasons for studying investment in an economy. First, the combination of firms’ investment demand and household’s saving supply determines how much of an economy’s’ resources is invested. Second, investment is highly volatile; thus investment demand may be important in the short-run fluctuations. The present article examines the relationship and veracity of existence of banks profit rate (as a proxy for interest rate) with the level of pricate sector investment in the short and log-run in Iran. For this purpose, using the method of Auto Regressive Distributed Lags, the model is estimated, and a negative and significant relation is found between credit rate with private sector investment both in short-term & long-term horizons.

In this paper, using Kakwani-Son method, price elasticity of poverty is calculated for taxed edible goods in the year 2004. This elasticity shows the total effect of price changes on poverty. The total effect is the sum of redistribution and income effects of price change. In fact, the redistribution effect tells us whether an increase in the price of a commodity hurts the poor more than the rich. Then we calculate the price poverty index for poverty gap ratio and the severity of poverty ratio. This index can be utilized to improve the tax or subsidy system so that social welfare is maximized.

In the present time, phenomenon like globalization, regionalism and economic integration are the basic issues which bring many positive consequences to the world economy. Regionalism and economic integration are one of the ways that developing countries can adopt to collate the globalization process. To acknowledge their own abilities or, to settle the commercial and economic disputes in their regions by using their comparative advantages, and getting the inherent readiness to merge to the world economy with a longer process. This paper, firstly reviews the process of globalization, economic integration and their effects on domestic and international economies. Then recalls some evidences on this basis from Iran and examines the appropriate economic integration for the selected Middle East countries by using cluster analysis and utilizing the “Generalized Gravity Model” and its estimation on “Panel Data” method. Generalized gravity model with Panel Data method, is done using variables such as GDP, economic structure, population, geographic situation, cultural contributions and per capita income.The results show that economic integration on the base of indices GDP, STR and POP; globalization indicators could increase the volume of trade and create opportunities for more exports and imports. In the other words, the economic integration could increase trade potential of Iranian economy according to GDP, STR, and POP indicesly by 153 percent, 99 percent and 28 percent respectively.

The Authors examine the effects of government expenditure on economic growth in Iran, using annual data for the period of 1973-2003.In this paper, they look at the effects of human, physical capital, and government budget on GDP. In the model developed in this paper, accumulation of human capital is dependent on physical. Human capital and government budget as well.The result indicates that government expenditure, consumption and capital expenditures both are positive and significant on economic growth. The capital expenditure can have positive effect for two years, but consumption expenditure can have effect on the same year. On the other hand, ratio of  private investment to capital stock can have positive effects on economic growth and it's role is stronger than the government expenditure.