Journal of Management Future Research
Year:2019 | Volume:29 | Issue:115 |Papers Count:10

The present study is a descriptive-analytical study aimed at mapping probable states in the future of the banking system of Iran. In the process of doing this research, at first, eight main actors, including government, parliament, judiciary, central bank, governmental banks, private banks, microcredit customers and large-scale customers of banks, were interviewed. There were two influential actors in creating the future scenarios of the banking system (government and large-scale customers of banks i. e. financial resources applicants). The major options for each decision to create the future were examined. Thereafter, possible options and priorities were determined. At the end, the stability of probable situations were analyzed and different policies for each of the situations were proposed.

Background: Studies of the last two decades in the field of strategic thinking have been developed in two branches of psychology and management. Researchers have recently proposed a hybrid approach that has led to the development of an organizational competency. Objective: the purpose of this study was to develop a comprehensive and process model of strategic thinking for the Iran National Gas Company`s mangers, in accordance with synthesizing the recent studies, as an organizational competency which separated in two dimensions of content and strategies with the aim of developing its components as well as identifying and explaining the unique requesting factors, the underlying factors on both the individual and organizational levels and the expected outcomes. Methods: the research plan was an exploratory combination which through qualitative strategies (Grounded Theory and meta-synthesis), primary conceptual model was obtained. Then, through a quantitative strategy (survey), model was tested. In the qualitative section, a targeted sampling method, a semi-structured interview with managers of strategic level, as well as a taking notes of the company's documents, were applied. In quantitative section, based on vizenry rule, the number and member of sample were determined. The number of sample was determined based on the Vinzi`s rule and STQv6 test. Data was collected by using an electronic questionnaire. Findings: the requirements including environmental, organizational and value as requesting factors, the visionary manager and the corporate entrepreneurship as the underlying factors, the content dimension of strategic thinking, including 5 methods of divergent thinking, strategies include 6 ways of thinking, the target and expected outcomes including 4 organizational capabilities, in whole, form the strategic thinking model. Results: strategic thinking, should be used as an organizational competency focused on the organizational goals and in accordance with environmental requirement to optimally develop organization's capabilities.

Objective evidence in the field of corporate foresight research suggests that companies and organizations are still suffering from a lack of a framework for facing future economic conditions and ensuring that all relevant external changes are relevant and appropriate responses are presented. This research aims to develop the capabilities of corporate foresight and the successful use of foresight activities in companies to enter the global markets to examine the capacities of the two areas of knowledge of corporate foresight and international marketing. The research method has two main parts. First, through the qualitative research method, theoretical foundations are analyzed and analyzed. In the second part, the modeling is based on the modeling of the interpretative structure, explained and analyzed. The statistical population of this research is futurists experts and managers of active export management companies. Sampling method is a targeted sampling method. The findings suggest that the proposed framework, utilizing the capacities of the two fields of corporate foresight and international marketing planning, can be combined with the integration of prospecting and strategic planning approaches and the issue of entry into international markets Analyzes future scenarios in this area and facilitates the formation of a strategy to ultimately improve the ability of companies to deal with discontinuous changes and reduce the uncertainty of companies, especially export management companies.

Purpose: Today, organizations are witnessing rapid and unpredictable changes in the environment, and the change in workforce lies in the heart of these developments. The aim of this study identify and investigated factors affecting the innovation in military Units and Company. The perspective of this research is concerned with identifying factors affecting technological innovation can policy making in order to improve innovation in Military Units. Design/methodology/approach: For this purpose, after reviewing the literature and interview with experts, the factors affecting the development of technological innovation were categorized in two categories: internal factors and environmental factors. Findings: The results of this study indicates that in internal factors, human capital, system performance evaluation, corporate strategy, internal research and development, organizational culture, knowledge management and in environmental factors, strong and expertise clusters, collaboration with Other military units, contacts with universities and research centers, financing institutions have most impact on technological innovation in Military Units.

The purpose of this research is to measure impact of human resource management practices on organizational social capital using future research tools and its analysis in comparison with emerging HR trends. The research is applied in terms of its purpose and is descriptive-survey in terms of data collection. Human resource management practices has been measured through a researchermade questionnaire with Delphi method during two consecutive runs, which include four dimensions of selection, human resource development, compensation, and communication. A standard questionnaire was used to measure organizational social capital and the reliability of the research tool was calculated through the Cronbach's alpha of 0. 969. The statistical population of the study was the Ministry of Education in the survey stage and the Shannon Entropy method was used to measure the indicators. Findings show the positive and significant impact of each of the four measures of human resource management practices on the three dimensions of organizational social capital. The impact of human resource development variable on the structural dimension and variable of service compensation on the social capital's social dimension was not confirmed. The greatest influence is the subsystem of choice on social capital, so that up to 74% of the changes related to social capital can be influenced by the selection of human resources. The results of the research indicate that the impact of HRMP on organizational social capital is emphasized on the emerging HR trends.

Today supply chain network is recognized as the main bases in economic activity. Their significance is due to just in time delivery and the efficiency of different commodities including food, clothing, energy, computer hardware. This has stimulated researchers and experts to analyze supply chain problems. Meanwhile, uncertainty has penetrated every level of our lives and we encounter it every day. The present paper focuses on green supply chain that consider uncertainty conditions to solve a model for designing a forward green supply network (environmental)under uncertainty of future economic conditions in Iran Khodro Company. The problem of designing the aforementioned network includes hypotheses including multicommodity, multi-layer and one-period. Due to inconsistent economic conditions, uncertainty has been differently tackled here as compared with previous literature. In this problem, several important parameters have been considered as indefinite including customers’ demands, operating expenses, the productive capacity and relocating capacity of facilities. The proposed model also considers the contamination of production section and the transportation system of the chain and tries to reduce it by suggesting an objective function and Eco-indicator 99 method. As well, production and distribution centers operate in a dual-purpose manner. Saving costs and reducing contamination due to applying transportation supplies and common infrastructures are among the benefits of this method. Considering the complexity of solving this problem and its NP-hard nature, the meta heuristic method of genetic algorithm with nondominated sorting (NSGAII) was analyzed and finally model performance was examined with a numerical example and solving it with MATLAB and GAMS software.

Knowledge about future oil demand is essential for OPEC member countries to set priorities and select policies in order to achieve economic growth and development. So in this study, the OPEC oil demand has been predicted using time series models Including Structural Vector Autoregressive model (SVAR), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) and Gravitational Search Algorithm (That is one of the Innovative Search Algorithms) applying demand data from 1970 to 2014. In this regard, three criteria including Mean Sum of Squared Errors (MSSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) have been used to measure the predictive power of triple models. Results indicate that the SVAR model has the most appropriate prediction of OPEC global demand. According to results of this model, net export variable has a positive and significant impact on oil demand and OPEC petroleum price and non-OPEC production variables have a negative and significant impact on oil demand.

The future is full of deep uncertainties and surprising events. This matter is more intense and more sensitive in public sector policies and programs that have a greater volume, impact, and complexity and have longer horizons. Therefore, policymakers and planners always try to make necessary anticipations in their decisions and actions to cope with uncertainties. For this reason, foresight, as a field that its historical origins, goes back to the post-World War II events, combines science and art as an emerging transdisciplinarity experience, and combines the fields of futures study, Strategic planning and policy development, can be used as an effective tool for government officials and policymakers for robust planning, networking and making a commitment among stakeholders. Thus, the foresight is used inhancing the stability and success of policies. Foresight functions include Policy informing, Strategic policy counseling, and Policy facilitating. Furthermore, Foresight can be considered as an effective tool in international and global level issues as well, the experiences of countries and international organizations confirms this subject.

A model for life skills of digital generation in Iran (High school level). The study has been done to promote life skills of the digital generation. The purpose of this study is exploratory and its method is descriptive survey. Key factors of life skills have been determined on the basis of the review of related literature. Then a questionnaire has been created in 10 scales, its content validity has been confirmed according to educational experts. After modification, the revised questionnaire has been conducted in Tehran’ s high schools. Sample population is both female and male students of high school as well as their teachers. Sampling is based on stratified multistage. Collected data has been analyzed through factor analysis, one sample t-test, paired ttest, Friedman test. According to the results life skills including personal skills, media and information literacy, 21st century literacy.

The relationship between youth and each of the major areas of life, including value priorities and its behavioral implications, can be studied as a subject of future studies. Setting Iran at the young age in terms of age trend population, the increase in urban populations, the existence of class divisions and the importance of materialistic values in today's city life, has led to creating a scene in the city to showcase the consumption of luxury goods. The present research seeks to investigate the relationship between individual self (versus relational self and collective self) with the materialism and conspicuous consumption, as well as, the impact of materialism on conspicuous consumption. Furthermore, researchers have studied the difference between young boys and girls from the aspect of materialism and conspicuous consumption in fashion and clothing. The research method was a survey and data collection was done through a questionnaire. The statistical population of the present study was all young consumers living in north of Tehran. The required data is collected from a sample of 395 subjects and finally, for data analysis simple linear regression and multivariate analysis of variance have been used. According to the results, materialism has had a positive impact on conspicuous consumption of fashion goods and apparel, and the materialism and conspicuous consumption of this category of products in young girls were more than young boys. There was also no relationship between the individual self with materialism and conspicuous consumption. Of course, the results show a high level of individualism in the statistical society.