Journal of Economic Policy
Year:2012 | Volume:4 | Issue:7|Papers Count:7

According to meteorology experts, the average rainfall in the current year has decreased to around 70% to 80%, which is the worst in the past 45 years. The initial estimates of such a situation show a decrease of 20% to 25% in the agricultural output. In this article, we show that, due to intersectoral relationship between agriculture and the other sectors of the economy, the fall in the agricultural output directly and indirectly reduces the output of the other sectors and the total output, factor income, and household income as well. Such observation raises the question, “to what extent the fall in the output of agricultural as a purchaser from the other sectors and as a seller to them would affect the total output, factor and household income of the country?” The use of conventional SAM models is not appropriate and, therefore, requires modified SAM models based on the Supply-Driven SAM. Using the 2006 SAM, the overall results show that a 25% decrease in the agricultural output as a purchasing sector brings about a 3.2% decrease in GDP of the country, whereas the corresponding decrease as a selling sector is 4.2%.

In the literature on economy, the amount of output that minimizes a firm's long-run average cost curve is referred to as the minimum efficient scale (MES). It can be calculated by different methods such as Comanor-Wilson, cost, or median method. MES can be evaluated with regard to the trend of incumbents as well as new firms in each industry. In the industry-economy literature, this notion is known as survivor approach. This paper aims to determine MES in Iranian manufacturing industries by this method. The dataset encompasses manufacturing industrial firms' characteristics at two-digit industry levels. Also, a transition matrices technique is employed to determine their efficient size. The results demonstrate that MES is closely related to the kind of industry in which a firm is operating. In addition, there exist industries with more than one efficient size. With regard to political issues and based on the findings of this paper, instead of introducing a single efficient size for all industries, a separate efficient size should be offered for each industry.

The aim of this paper is to analyze Iran’s competition in drug export during 2002-2010 by using a shift-share index. The shift-share index consists of three components, namely, competitive effect, structural effect, and adaptation effect. The results indicate that Iranian drug export is on an upward trend. In addition, the findings suggest that adaptation effect has had a positive impact whereas competitiveness and structural effect have had a negative impact on the competitive status of Iran in drug export.

Applying z-score indices and a panel data approach, the financial stability of banking sector and its determinants during 1380-1388 are investigated in this paper. The data used in this study have been taken from banking sector balance sheets and income data. The results show that an increase in the debt/assets and cost/income ratios would cause the banking financial stability to decrease. However, an increase in the Income Diversity Index would have a positive and significant effect on the financial stability of the banking sector. Moreover, among the variables affecting the financial stability of the banking sector, the ratio of debt/assets has had more negative effect on the banking financial stability. Among the macroeconomic variables in the model, inflation rate has had a negative effect on the financial stability of the banking sector. If the inflation rate increases, the financial stability of the banking sector decreases, but other variables like GDP growth rate and exchange rate growth have no significant effect on the financial stability of the banking sector.

One of the most important controversial issues in the recent decades has been globalization phenomenon. The assessment of the impacts and the comprehensive consequences of this phenomenon on macro economic variables has attracted the attention of economists.This paper has analysed the effect of trade openness on output-inflation tradeoff, and inflation for 34 selected members of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) countries during the 1990 - 2008 period. In other words, we have answered the following two questions:1) what is the relationship between trade openness and inflation? and 2) what is the relationship between trade openness and output-inflation tradeoff? A cross-section technique and the method of least squares and a heteroskedasticity test have been used as the evaluation devices. The results show that trade openness has decreased the average inflation but increased the output-inflation tradeoff in the OIC countries.

This article analyzes the rate of technical progress (TP) and total factor productivity (TFP) of 140 Iranian industries using the stochastic frontier approach (SFA). The results show that the highest growth rate of technical progress during the years 1995-2007 was related to the manufacture of plastics in primary forms as well as the manufacture of synthetic rubber, motor vehicles, and basic iron and steel. The research findings also imply that, firstly, the average growth of TFP was about 1.28 and, secondly, the technical progress and technical changes respectively had the greatest effect on TFP in the industry sector. Furthermore, the manufacture of parts and accessories for motor vehicles and their engines, as well as the manufacture of motor vehicles, food products, and basic iron and steel had the highest growth rate of TFP.

The main reasons for developing countries to support small and medium-scale industries are their high flexibility, lower investment necessity, targeting specific entrepreneurs, and dynamic management. These characteristics are important for creating jobs, bringing equitable distribution of income, and overall higher-gross domestic products. The main purpose of this study is to measure the efficiency of small -scale industries by data envelopment analysis within different provinces of the country with special reference to Hamedan province. The results show that, during the years 1381-1386, the average efficiency of small industries in the country was around 96 percent. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most important factors affecting performance are employment rate, quantity of investment, and value of production. Hamedan province has been equal to the average score of the country (92 percent), ranking 12 among all the provinces. However, the trend of efficiency and productivity growth was not positive as expected.