JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS STUDIES IN IRAN
Year:2012 | Volume:1 | Issue:1|Papers Count:7

In this paper, we examine the determinants of economic growth in Iran over the period 1338-1386 based on linear as well as non linear smooth transition regressions (STR). In model specification, economic disequilibrium including money, exchange rate and output gaps are entered as explanatory variables in addition to the explanatory conventional ones such as investment, government spends and oil revenues representing demand and supply sides factors. The results show that nonlinear specifications outperform the linear ones which is in a great agreement with the main hypothesis at this study. In nonlinear specification, the model coefficients change along with foreign or exchange rate disequilibrium. In first regime (defined as domestic currency appreciation), negative oil shocks, real balances, investment to output ratio, government spending and economic disequilibrium have strong and significant effects on economic growth. However, in the second regime (domestic currency depreciation), the negative oil shocks, investment ratio and government spending have much less impacts with real balance variable leaving stronger impacts on economic growth.

Stock market as a major part of financial market has an important role in mobilization of savings and finance of firms. Recognition of effective factors in expanding this market while increases the analyzing ability of researchers, it could be an appropriate guideline to policy-makers. In this study by using protecting the investors index which is calculated by the World Bank and the basis of available data from 46 developing countries during interval 2006-2010 have been investigated empirically, That which whether level of legal protection of shareholders, considering other important factors which affect the expansion of stock market has a meaningful role in expansion of stock market or not. Results of estimation of econometric model confirm this hypothesis meaning that countries making more legal protection of shareholders, have got more expanded stock market.

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of innovation on market share in textile, leather and apparel industries (4-digit codes) in Iran. According to the literature on the industrial economics, the relationship between innovation and market share is nonlinear (an inverted-U shaped). This relationship is known as the Schumpeter hypothesis. This paper is trying to investigate the Schumpeter's hypothesis using data on the industrial firms of 10+ workers during the period 1995-2007. For this purpose, the method of nonlinear method of the logistic smooth transition threshold (LSTR) applied to estimate the model. The results confirm the existence of a non-linear relationship between the innovation and market share in the textile, leather and apparel industries. Hence, the support and encouragement of innovative activities by government would enhance the market share of these industries. In addition, the nonlinear relationship between market share and innovation in these industries shows that there exists an optimal level of R&D costs which maximize the industries' market share.

A common concern of economics profession was always with the determinants of economic growth. Among them, inflation was an important variable. This has significant direct and indirect effects on the economy and, upon many empirical studies, on economic growth. However, two of its most important effects, are inflation uncertainty and relative price dispersion. Hence, these three variables, together, may have a considerable impact on growth. This study is to investigate impacts of inflation, inflation uncertainty and relative price dispersion on Iran's economic growth using a VAR pattern and 1972-2007 annual data. Findings show that the rise of inflation in Iran, has been strongly accompanied by increased uncertainty within four years, and that, inflation and uncertainty has had a negative effect on real private investment growth, thereby on real GDP growth. Also, the most important effect of relative price dispersion is on the inflation in short term.

Exponential growth of financial markets has revealed the importance of the Value-at-Risk (VaR), a renowned measure of market risk, more than past. Using normal-GARCH model is one of the basic methods for estimating VaR. However, the distribution of financial asset returns has more fat tail compare to the normal distribution. Therefore, in this study we implement a bias-correction procedure based on the bootstrap method to remove the deficiencies of the normal-GARCH model with respect to the appropriate VaR forecasts. Our results show that the correction procedure has improved the ability of normal-GARCH model in forecasting VaR for Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX), at least in extreme probability levels, and also VaR forecasts obtained from the t-GARCH model. Historical Simulation (HS) and Filtered HS models have been also studied to further compare the results of the bias-correction procedure.

Adopting monetary and financial policies in economy of each country and their maximum effects depend on the correct recognition of money demand function in that country. On the other hand, stability recognition and anticipating the money demand also can be effective on controlling the mass of money in order to meet economic objectives and minimizing damages caused by wrong performance of monetary system. In present paper, estimation, function stability and forecasting money demand function in Iran during the period from 1971 through 2009 are investigated using ARDL method. Results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among this function's variables, and direct relationship of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inverse relationship of exchange rate variables and rate of inflation on money demand function are also approved. Also, a stability test was conducted on this function where results suggest that discussed function has long term structural stability and it can be said that reaching long term objectives according to stability of money demand function will be next to possible with a shorter interval by changing the effective variables or applying the appropriate monetary and functional policies.

Replacing gasoline vehicle by natural gas vehicles has advantages, such as lower CO2 emissions, and lower oil consumption. But this replacing faces significant challenges such as: lower traveled distance in comparison with vehicle gasoline, gas vehicle price is Higher than the vehicle gasoline price and as well as high investment costs in infrastructure section Such as gas stations. This paper by providing a dynamic system model, simulates and analyzes NGV fleet of long-term policies from 1390 to 1410 using vensim software. In this study, vehicles selection and Development of gas stations are two main elements of the model. In the vehicle selection between two types of car (gasoline and gas vehicle) from buyers characteristics such as vehicle price, number of stations, fuel costs and vehicle depreciation costs has been considered and modeled. The Result of study shows that the extension process of gas vehicles and number of stations will have increasing trend by assuming the continuation of the base year condition. so that NGV's share of total vehicles will reach to 27% and their numbers will reach approximately 10 million units With continuing situation of base year at the end of the year 1410 .The sensitivity analysis shows that the elimination of ration of gasoline and releasing prices of gasoline and gas have the Most effect on adoption of gas vehicles and following decreasing gasoline consumption.