Journal of Economic Modelling
Year:2021 | Volume:15 | Issue:54|Papers Count:6

The purpose of this paper is to apply the system dynamics approach to forecasting the price of gold in Iran, identify the factors affecting the price of gold and simulate the trend of the impact of monetary policy on the price of gold in the period 1405-2010. The simulation is performed with Wenzim software. In different scenarios, the present paper simulates the change in liquidity volume, consumer price index and bank interest rates on the gold market. The results show that the price of gold is not only affected by the global ounce price and the value of the dollar, but also the control of liquidity and curbing inflation will play a significant role in stabilizing the gold market. The results confirm that the volume of liquidity and the consumer price index have a direct impact and a significant role in increasing the price of gold. The findings also show that changes in bank interest rates have no effect on changes in gold prices.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the income, price and crossover elasticity's of energy carriers of Iranian urban households. For this purpose, the demand system of energy carriers including gasoline, household electricity and household gas for urban households is estimated from the combined household-year data with 77758 households during the years 2016-2017. The distinguishing feature of this article is the use of monthly price index data along with cross-sectional household budget data. The results show that gasoline, household electricity and household gas are among the essential goods. Of these three commodities, gasoline and household electricity are estimated to be elastic and gas domestic is elastic.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the size of the direct return effect related to electricity consumption in the domestic sector of Iran in terms of asymmetry in electricity prices using the conventional least squares method. For this purpose, and considering the separation of electricity prices based on the Dargi and Gitley (1995) study, annual data for the period 1397-1347 and estimating the elasticity of electricity demand have been used. The results showed that first, improving the efficiency of household electricity consumption has a return effect and second, the return effect in the household sector is equal to 43%, That is, with a 10% increase in home appliance technology, 4. 3% of the expected reserve due to the improvement of electricity consumption efficiency did not occur and this amount appeared in the form of a return effect and only 5. 7% of the expected reserve in electricity consumption was realized. Based on the findings, it is suggested that economic policymakers, by accurately estimating the return effect, while achieving the goal of saving electricity consumption, also avoid wasting resources.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of productivity changes in economic sectors on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, heat energy, economic growth and development using estimation of production functions by Tong and Peng method (2018) in the framework of scenario making technique (including three scenarios). The results showed that the nine sectors of the total economy and their productivity in the period 1353-1393 is between 3. 175 to 4. 59 million Rials, Therefore, the starting point of productivity is the lower limit of productivity of the performance range of 3. 175. Also, in the sectors of economy, industry and mining, electricity (power plants) and construction, even with a 30% increase in the lower limit, the productivity of the whole economy is not in the operating range (3. 175). Based on the results, it is suggested that planners, managers and economic policy makers increase the productivity of the industry and mining, power plant and construction sectors by more than 30% by changing the technology in order to achieve the appropriate amount of economic growth.

Although economic growth is affected by the growth of factors of production, but according to the pattern of endogenous growth, other variables also affect economic growth. In this study, the effect of the comparative advantage of different activities on the GDP of the provinces in the period 2004-2014 has been used. For this purpose, the data of statistical yearbooks and regional accounts of the Statistics Center of Iran for 30 provinces have been used. The estimation of the models has been evaluated in the form of a dynamic panel model using the GMM technique. The results of estimating the models confirm that the comparative advantage index in the three major sectors of agriculture, construction and services have a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of the provinces by 0. 49, 0. 08 and 0. 07 percent, respectively. While the index of comparative advantage of industry, mining and energy sector shows a negative impact of 0. 15 on the economic growth of the provinces, this negative impact can be due to the greater impact of other sectors on the GDP of the provinces.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the interrelationships between transportation (rail and air), economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during the period 1362-1397 using time series data and the system of simultaneous equation approach. The findings show a positive correlation between transportation (rail and air) and economic growth, as well as between transportation (rail and air) and carbon dioxide emissions. Another finding of this study is that economic growth has a significant effect on increasing carbon dioxide emissions, but increasing carbon dioxide emissions has no effect on economic growth. Based on the results, the creation and development of infrastructure related to the type of transportation in order to improve the country's economic growth is proposed.