آینده پژوهی ایران
سال:1401 | دوره:7 | شماره:2 |تعداد مقالات:12

Purpose: Clustering and co-word analysis is a method to reveal relationships and links and illustrate the intellectual structure of a scientific field. This research tries to study the intellectual structure of articles in the field of futures studies in Iran by using the technique of co-word analysis. Method: The current research is a descriptive-analytical development with a scientometric approach. The statistical population is 921 articles retrieved records in the field of futures studies. Findings: The findings showed that articles in the field of futures studies in Iran are often associated with positive growth, and in terms of frequency, the keywords scenario, Islamic Republic, and foresight are the most frequent in futures studies. The findings related to the hierarchical clustering led to the formation of 8 clusters in this field, namely "ICT visions", "geographers who love the future", "knowledge development", " Futuristic higher education", "Future of Religion", "Regional Relations", "Strategic Foresight" and "Heavy Weight of Method". Conclusion: According to the findings of the current research and the high frequency of the keyword scenario, as well as the density and relationships of this keyword with other keywords, it can be concluded that the scenario is the dominant approach in futures studies. Also, according to the resulting clusters, it was observed that these researches have a high variety, but addressing the future in many areas is still neglected.

Purpose: The flourishing of political parties and currents is one of the signs of the degree of development in societies. In contemporary Iran and since the formation of the constitutional movement, political currents have gone through many ups and downs and it can be said that political currents in Iran after the Islamic Revolution have not yet reached the stage of institutionalization and stability. A characteristic feature of political currents in Iran is the divergence and division among political currents in recent decades, and this can be one of the reasons for the instability and cross-sectional and seasonal activity of political parties in Iran. Therefore, the necessity of leading research seeks to answer the question of how factors and divergence among political currents in Iran after the victory of the Islamic Revolution can be analyzed? And what are the scenarios for the advancement of political currents in Iran?Method: To answer this question, the method of causal-layer analysis, which is one of the qualitative methods in futures research, has been used.Findings: The research findings indicate that this divergence is due to a wide range of reasons from the level of causal systems (from the institutionalization of power to the formation of parties as elitist initiatives), worldview and discourse (from charismatic political authority to culture). Subsidiary-follower politics to myth-metaphor (Iranian individualism to belief in a strong state-weak society) can be analyzed.Conclusions: Three scenarios for the future of Iranian political currents can be considered: integration of currents as the security valve of the political system, the collapse of political currents in the traditional form, integration and consolidation in new social movements (virtualized parties).

Purpose: The science of interpretation, as the most important science responsible for understanding the Qur'an, needs to be methodized and updated so that the teachings of the Qur'an can be used easily for all classes of people. In the present study, the meaning of "future research in interpretation" is the ability to create desirable models for more efficient interpretation in the future, by using scientific tools, creativity and relying on the foundations and rules of interpretation and compensating the damages of interpretation in the past.Method: This research, with descriptive analytical method, answers the question, what are the fields and requirements of future research in interpretation? Findings: The results of the current research are based on the fact that special attention to the Qur'an, as the most important source of interpretation, rationality and methodical consideration in interpretation, attention to the prerequisites of interpretation, interpretation based on the requirements of the time, the need to pay attention to thematic interpretation, studying on the history of interpretation and observing the manners and conditions of interpretation are one of the most important requirements of interpretation in the future. Results: Considering the developments that will take place in the field of knowledge, methods and expectations from science in the future, the interpretation will also change. For this reason, in order not to cause various damages to the interpretation of the Qur'an, it is necessary to pay attention to the various contexts, principles and requirements of the interpretation of the Qur'anic commentators and scholars.

Purpose: The present research aimed at finding an answer to the question of the process of influence of cyberspace on Iranian Poetry in the future, and the influence of cyberspace on various aspects of poetry such as content, its audience, the poet, the media that published the poem, the process of composing the poem, the rights of the author, and Globalization of the Iranian poetry. Method: The Delphi technique was used to carry out this research. A group of experts comprising professors in the fields of Communication and Literature was selected. The expert’s opinions were collected and analyzed through an in-depth interview, a questionnaire based on the Likert scale, and by the execution of three stages of Delphi rounds. Findings: Accordingly, considering the content, the experts predicted that due to the impact of cyberspace, the quality of the poetry will be reduced and consequently, the language of poetry will become simpler and close to prose and it will only reflect the daily events of life. Regarding the audience, they concluded that the audience’s selection power will be increased, however, we can differentiate between the public and professional audience. With respect to the sender, there will be no phenomenon of multi authors, and regarding the channel, the experts agreed upon Media Convergence besides, the poets’ agency in publishing their own poems will be increased. Conclusion: Experts believe that the spread of communication technologies will make censorship ineffective. This is the only case in which the group believes in the impact of technology on the future of poetry. The group of experts did not reach a consensus regarding the impact of technology on the phenomena such as publication of author’s poems as one’s original work and the Globalization of Iranian poetry, thus, analyzed these items in the framework of the human agency.

Purpose: Managers are one of the important elements of an organization, for this reason, in order to draw the future of the organization, it is necessary for the planners to specify the conditions of their selection and appointment. Therefore, the current research has been done with the aim of identifying and analyzing the components of selecting future principals.Method: In this research, comparative and benchmarking method is used as a prospective approach. This approach is based on the belief that today's advanced organizations/countries can be considered as a model for the future of another organization/countries in their respective subjects. For this, first, the fields of comparison and benchmarking were determined using Brody's four-step comparison method; then the countries of Canada, Finland, Australia, South Africa, and Japan were selected according to the qualitative balance value in the international advanced TEAMS test, human development index, life quality index(health, instruction, and welfare), education quality index, and other scientific-scholarly indexes; finally, by extracting the criteria for the selection and appointment of principals through content analysis and comparison with Iran, the proposed framework for Iran has been presented.Findings: A total of 61 components for the selection of secondary school principals were identified from among the studies conducted in the selected countries in this article. By extracting the commonalities and differences of each of the components among the countries, it was found that the highest index of manager selection and appointment belongs to Japan and the lowest one is related to Finland.Conclusion: There are similarities between the components of selection of principals of secondary schools in Iran and selected countries. In Iran, special attention should be paid to important components such as adherence to religious principles, appropriate personality traits, creativity and innovation, motivation to develop capabilities, professional growth, power of supervision and accountability, social image, leader skills, and purposefulness and foresight.

Purpose: Due to the great damage that Corona has inflicted on the tourism industry, neglecting the future of tourism marketing can pose a serious challenge to this industry and economy and have irreparable consequences. The purpose of this study is to identify key factors, drivers and future scenarios of the tourism marketing.Method: The present study is applied-developmental in terms of purpose, descriptive-analytical in nature and mixed (qualitative-quantitative) in terms of methodology. The method of this research is scenario writing using MicMac software to identify key drivers and scenarios with Wizard scenario software.Findings: First, the future trends and meta-trends of post-corona tourism marketing were identified, of which 41 key trends and 8 meta-trends were identified. According to experts, 19 key factors in the future of tourism marketing in post- corona were identified using the cross-impact analysis and questionnaire completion. Then, using the cross-impact analysis questionnaire and with the help of the Wizard scenario software, two groups of favorable and unfavorable scenarios were identified.Conclusion: Based on the research results, there are two favorable scenarios and two unfavorable scenarios that can help marketing and tourism policy-makers and decision-makers to take into account the effective factors and scenarios proposed for proper planning of industry in the post-Corona era.

Purpose: Resilience in start-ups is a challenging issue that has caught the attention of policymakers and business owners. The present study is an attempt to provide a model for designing the resilience model of start-up businesses as a path to the future of start-up businesses. Method: This research is practical in terms of purpose and from the perspective of data collection is a qualitative research that has been done by content analysis method. The data collection method is semi-structured interview. Interviews with participants continued until they reached the theoretical saturation point, which was achieved by conducting 15 interviews. Participants were selected by snowball and purposeful method and data analysis was done through three coding steps (open, axial, selective) with MAXQDA2020 software. Findings: Based on the research results, the components of "cognitive resilience, financial resilience, adaptive resilience" as well as the effective organizational factors of "precedent, drivers and boys and resilience consequences" were identified. In this research, foresight and futures studies were identified as the drivers of resilience of start-up businesses. Conclusion: Resilience enables businesses to respond effectively to the dynamic conditions of their environment and maximize their competencies through strategic foresight and as a result gain more value than their competitors in the field of business. In this regard, the integration of foresight in the process of business resilience can be suggested as a facilitator of drivers.

Purpose: The future of the construction industry is increasingly influenced by new technologies. In order to adopt appropriate strategies in facing new technologies, it is necessary to know the possible futures of the construction industry. This research was done with the aim of explaining the technological uncertainties and compiling the future scenarios of the construction industry.  Method: The research method is applied and was carried out with a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. First, the library study was used to determine the technological drivers, then the Structural Analysis was used to explain the technological uncertainties, and finally, the Schwartz method was used to compile the scenarios. The statistical population is experts of construction industry. Findings: Nine technological uncertainties affecting the future of the construction industry have been identified and for each of them, three states of decline, stagnation and progress have been considered. Data analysis by Scenario Wizard shows eight probable scenarios. The portfolio of scenarios including four groups of progress scenarios, towards progress, towards stagnation, and towards wane has been compiled. Conclusion: In the progress scenario, the 89% of uncertainties have developed. In  towards progress, 56% of the factors are in the development status, which indicates the development of the technological factor application. In the stagnation scenario, no progress has been made in the application of uncertainties and they are in a static state. In towards wane, uncertainties have been placed in a situation of reduced use.

Objective: In many countries, the advancements in information technologies and the decentralized computing method has inspired hope to take advantage of modern information technologies, such as artificial intelligence, in order to overcome the unique challenges in global health including the coronavirus crisis. The following study tries to examine the possible future scenarios in the industry, with the aim of discovering new opportunities to increase health and quality of life.Findings: Considering the research literature, seventeen drivers, which had affected the research in three dimensions, were identified and the Delphi method was used for the accuracy of confirmation, their rankings and for the calculation of their certainty. The relationships between the drivers and the identified dimensions were measured and confirmed in the form of hypotheses and model presentations by structural equation methods. Using the cross-matrix method, five drivers were identified as risk and goal. Finally, through the identification of uncertainty and risk and goal drivers, four scenarios were developed.Conclusion: Conclusion: The treatment structure and medical equipment influenced by COVID-19 pandemic conditions and due to the growth rate, optimal and intelligent application of modern digital technologies creates a wide-ranging evolution in this field and illustrates the possibility of achieving a desired future by taking advantage of the scenario of the formation of an interconnected global society and the realization of global health in the interaction of artificial intelligence drivers, novel production demands, sanctions, internet of things (IoT) and blockchain.

Purpose: Something that happens in the future of a scientific field depends on today's view of young people about the future. The perception of young people from the future and their conception of the future is very important. The purpose of this study was to imaging the future of sports science from the perspective of educated youth. Method: The method of the present research is qualitative and exploratory research and in terms of purpose is applied research. The statistical population of the study included educated youth who are familiar with sports science and the snowball sampling method was used for interviews and theoretical saturation were obtained with 23 interviews. To analyze the data, the content analysis method has been used to obtain the information of this research. Findings: The results show the future of sports science among educated youth consists of seven main concepts that include: hope for a green education system, excessive interest in working in the sports industry, basic reengineering, relative disappointment from the ability of authorities, social position through academic education, desire for empowerment and lack of skills, injustice, and utilitarianism. Conclusion: Finally, by observing the mental images of the youth, it can be stated that sports science will move towards the dystopia if the current situation continues, and it can move towards the utopia with fundamental changes. In this direction, the stakeholders of sports sciences need to be together and disagreements need to be managed as well as arbitrariness of sports science professionals should be reduced.

Objective: People who have higher social health can more successfully deal with the challenges and ups and downs of playing key social roles and participate more in collective activities and prevent social deviations and anomalies. In this regard, foresight and the development of a forward-looking strategy model by the media can play an important role in promoting the social health of their audience (individuals).Method: This research has been done qualitatively and quantitatively. In the qualitative phase, content analysis and Q methods were used, and in the quantitative phase, factor analysis was used to analyze the Q method data.Results: The content analysis of the media in this study showed that the most media production in the field of social deviations with 576 cases and the lowest media production in the field of violence with 237 cases. The field of social quality with 485 and the field of social issues with 312 cases are in the second and third ranks. A small questionnaire was made and based on it, the desired model was designed using PLS software. Conclusion: This model showed that the function of media is effective in promoting social health of society and can have the greatest impact on improving quality of life, reducing violence, reducing social deviations and social issues.

Purpose: The present study aims to identify and explain the futures of Iranian provinces in the competition for the development of NBIC technological convergence (synergy between nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences) with a focus on Yazd province. Method: This research, which has been conducted with a qualitative and descriptive approach, is classified as an exploratory futures-study. In this way, the relevant research records were first reviewed to compile a list of drivers in the development of convergent technologies. The list was then refined and prioritized to identify two key drivers, with the Delphi process attended by fourteen experts. By intersecting the uncertainties of these two drivers, four scenarios of the province's future in technological convergence competition emerged. Findings: The two key drivers affecting the success of the province in the competition for convergent technologies are: the rate of development of the innovation ecosystem and the amount of financial resources allocated to this process. Based on this, four scenarios of the future situation of the province in this field were identified, which have been named as "Vanguard", "Buyer", "Remnant" and "Hired". Conclusion: In order for the provinces to be able to succeed in the forthcoming competitions in the production and operation of convergent technologies, it is necessary to plan for strengthening the ecosystem infrastructure from now; at the same time, it is necessary to make efficient efforts to provide sufficient financial resources for the research and commercialization of these technologies.