JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC MODELING
Year:2017 | Volume:2 | Issue:1 (4) |Papers Count:7

The aim of this study is to investigate nonlinear effects of fiscal decentralization on inflation in the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve framework in Iran. To meet this end, using the data of 30 provinces during 2005 to 2012 and Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR), the relationship between fiscal decentralization and inflation has been examined. The results show that the effect of fiscal decentralization on inflation is asymmetric and depends on the fiscal decentralization level; So that, by increasing the level of fiscal decentralization, the inflation rate was first reduced and then increased. The results of other parameters estimation also show that output gap, inflation lag and inflation expectations have a positive and asymmetric impact on the current inflation rate.

The main purpose of this paper is to model the types of energy intensity in Iranian manufacturing industries. For this, by using the very last micro data, we have decomposed the energy intensity into its types at the 3 and 4 digit aggregate level of ISIC classification. After that, we have modeled the energy intensity types by employing a panel data model. Based on the results obtained from the different methods of measuring the numerical index of decomposition, the factors influencing energy intensity are more fitted when employing non-Divisian indices (Laspeyres, Paasche, and Fisher). Among non Divisian indices, the model with the multiplicative Divisia index has the most explanation power. The results from the model estimated also indicate the intensity of labor has a significant and positive effect on energy intensity in the manufacturing industries. In contrast, capital intensity, profit intensity, energy consumption ratio, energy substitution ratio and technology have a significant and negative effect on energy intensity. Furthermore, R& D intensity and firm size influence on energy intensity non-linearly and significantly.

Preliminary studies of the Kuznets curve, on a simple model (pollution function of the level of development) relied. Recent studies argue that other factors except the income could be decisive in the environmental pollution. One of the economic variables that have been considered in recent years is income inequality. In this study, using time series data from Iran (1978 to 2013), the effect of income distribution on carbon dioxide emissions has been discussed. The Gini coefficient in urban areas and the income of the richest 10 percent to 10 percent of the poorest members of society has been used as an indicator of income inequality. Due to the characteristics of the variables, regression analysis was used to estimate the ARDL method. The results show that by improving the distribution of income, per capita carbon dioxide emissions are reduced. In other words, improving income distribution, while positive economic and social effects that many studies have enumerated, will improve the quality of the environment. Urbanization and per capita energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions per capita is positive and significant impact. Also in the short term and long-term per capita income has no effect on CO2 gas emissions per capita in the country.

Usually attention to the buying and keeping gold will increase with economic crises in the global economy, because gold has intrinsic value and in the economic crisis not only maintain its value but also high demand of it cause increase in its value. With increasing demand for gold, the possibility of existence of bubbles in its market will increase; therefor gold holders will tolerate destructive effects because of not identifying of the price bubbles.New economic tools not only make possible the analysis of middle explosive behavior of the bubble but also provide the possibility of identifying origination and termination date of that. According to this, the aim of this study is to explore price bubbles in gold market and to determinate date stamping of origination, explosion and complete deletion of them in the period of 01/07/2000 t0 30/12/2015. The methodologies that use for detection of bubbles are standard ADF, Rolling Window ADF, Supremum ADF and Generalized Supremum ADF tests. The results indicate that gold price is bubbling in at least 39% of sample period. The existence of the multiple bubbles is also confirmed in this market.

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between government size and the unemployment rate based on Abrams curve. For this purpose, a number of developed and developing countries data during 2013-2000, using error correction model in panel data method is used. Long-term model results in both groups of countries shows a significant relationship between the size of government and unemployment rate. But this relationship is negative and significant in developing countries; this means that the decline in unemployment will require increasing the size of government. While in developed countries the size of government has a significant positive relation with the unemployment rate. This result confirms that the Abrams curve is true in developed countries. But in developing countries cannot be confirmed. The error correction model results show that in developing countries the imbalance modified 0.07 per period and unemployment rate will move towards equilibrium.

Given the negative impact of oil revenues on government spending and followed by an increase in government size, value-added tax can play an important role in replacing tax revenues with oil revenues. As a new tax that has a wide tax base variation, and also have a positive impact on reducing government size. To examine the impact of VAT on government size, the ratio of total cost has been used to gross domestic product as an indicator of the size of the total government, and the ratio of current expense has been used to gross domestic product as indicator of the size of the current government, and also the ratio of the cost of construction has been used to gross domestic product as the indicator of the size of the state of development. For this purpose, time series statistics model have been used seasonally during the period 2009: 1 to 2016: 2 by the ARDL model. The results of this study show that there is a positive and significant relationship between Value Added Tax with the size of the total government, and the size of the current government and the size of the state of development. Model estimation results using self-explanatory Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Bound Testing approach show that dynamic model moves towards a long-term pattern in all three models.

Human resources is a key factor in the development of societies. Along with other productive resources and capital, the human capital is also important. The People are more educated and better trained and have better health, greater efficiency and higher production have. On the other hand the importance of economic development and modernization of social event marriages in communities always been considered.Because changes in lifestyle and new needs created over time can lead to changes in the quality of human behavior is Which in turn changes in various aspects of family life, such as marriage and make the continuation of marital life and this requires continuous and detailed study of this crucial event in each time in different societies. In this regard, the main objective of this thesis examines the impact of human capital on the net marriage in Semnan province. The results of the model estimation by OLS for the period 1393-1366 shows that the number of native admitted to universities and higher education institutions as an indicator of human capital has a positive and significant influence on the net Marriage province.