Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research
Year:2019 | Volume:49 | Issue:4|Papers Count:17

The purpose of this study is to develop a prediction model for Iran's pistachio export prices in the world market. The initial analysis of pistachio price series over 987-2016 period confirmes the existence of cycles, seasonal effects and structural break in the series. Accordingly, developing a model having the potential to account for all these componenets of the price fluctuations is required. Given that, the Unobserved-components Model (UCM), is characterized with such potential was specified as a good choice for modelling pistachio price series and predicting its future values. Results of performing different specification tests within the Unobserved-components Model confirmes the existence of random cycle components, the trend with deterministic constant level and seasonal random effects. Based on the specified model, a price of 8/9 dollar per kg is predicted for the Iranian pistachio in 2022 year. in addition, result indicates that a large fluction in the pistachio export price is not expected in the next 5 years.

The majority of countries in order to develop their international trade and achieve a higher share in the world market, are adopting different trade policies with taking into account the effects of factors affecting on agricultural trade. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of macroeconomics factors affecting on agricultural trade using a vector autoregressive model for years 1982 to 2016. The results indicate that a shock on variables such as agricultural value added and investment in agricultural sector have positive effects on agricultural trade. While exchange rate, terms of trade and tariff have negative impacts. The results also show that the short term impact of the study variables is significantly high but it is gradually reducing over time and in long term it becomes very low. According to the results obtained from the analysis of variance, in the long term, the shock from trade, value added, investment, exchange rate, terms of trade and tariff rate have 76. 7%, 3%, 8. 1%, 5. 4%, 5. 5% and 1. 2% impact on agricultural trade respectively.

The growth of the agricultural sector is considered essential as a substrate for achieving the development goals in developing countries. According the importance of agriculture as well as the risky nature of production, corruption and other purposes, the government have always supported the agricultural sector. This study investigates the effects of macroeconomic variables and policy support on the growth of the agricultural sector in Iran. In this context, factors affecting the value added of the agricultural sector, gross capital formation, exports and imports of agricultural sector were investigated using a three-stage least squares model as a system of simultaneous equations with four equations during the period 1981-2015. The variables of capital-to-labor ratio, producer support, consumer support, exports of agricultural products, and value added lags with coefficients of 0. 488, 0. 156, 0. 008, 0. 021 and 0. 111, respectively, showed a significantly positive effect on the value added of agriculture. Also, the variable of imports of agricultural products with a coefficient of-0. 120 showed a negative and significant effect on the value added of agricultural sector. Factors affecting export, import and gross capital formation of agricultural sector were explained. The results showed that the support policy on the agricultural sector is not of adequate efficiency and it is necessary, for planners and policymakers, to point out the extent and the way of allocating supports more appropriately.

Due to problems such as high risk, water resources constraints, environmental problems and low technology levels in the agricultural sector, policy-making in this sector requires major revision. according to this, accordingly the main purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of policies and factors such as reducing water resources, reducing the use of fertilizer and developing mechanization on the farming model of Hamedan province, taking into account risk conditions and using a positive math planning approach. Based on the coefficient of variation of the cities, Nahavand and Bahar were selected as the Low risk and riskiest city. According to the results, with decreasing of water resources, barley cultivation in Nahavand and alfalfa remained constant in the Bahar city and wheat and corn in Bahar city and alfalfa in Nahavand were eliminated from the crop pattern. Water sensitivity analysis showed that by saving 55 percent of water consumption, the production level, and current profit could be reached. Due to the policy of reducing fertilizer use in the Bahar city, the level of fixed hay and wheat, maize and barley are eliminated from the cultivar model, but in Nahvand it does not change the cultivar pattern, which showed that the sensitivity analysis of fertilizer limits showed a decrease of 40% The use of fertilizer, the pattern of cultivation will not change. In the Bahar, with the policy of mechanization development, the level of cultivation of wheat and maize, the increase in barley and alfalfa and potatoes is constant, but in Nahavand, alfalfa, wheat, and barley, maize is increasing, and potatoes remain constant like Bahar city. Also, by applying this scenario, the total profit in the Bahar city has increased and declined in the city of Nahavand. Therefore, the Nahavand area needs less mechanization development. The results of this study showed that the high risk of production in each region leads to risk of policy implementation. This means that significant changes in yield and, consequently, greater risk will make farmers more sensitive to changing the current situation and imposing constraints and implementing the policies expressed.

The lack of proper management and adequate water supply in agricultural sector has been followed by many harmful social-economic and environmental side effects. The main objective of the present study is to estimate the value of supplying adequate water and to compare it with the lost agricultural income due to the lack of adequate supply of agricultural water from the Latyan and Mamlu dams in the city of Varamin. To achieve the objectives of the field research study in 1395, Using the Michael and Carson method, the number of samples was selected and, by completing 320 questionnaires, information was obtained from farmers in Varamin plain. In order to estimate value of water supply, the conditional valuation and single bounded dichotomous choice technique were utilized. The results show that the water supply value is 1575 rials per cubic meter, compared with the values obtained in water (300 rials per cubic meter) higher. According to the construction of two dams and Mamlou Latyan that the allocation of 160 million cubic meters of water to the plains of Varamin is, Water was estimated total value of 252. 000 million riyals. Also, based on the price of products in 1395, the lost income of farmers was estimated at 3. 251. 850 million rials due to insufficient supply of water; By comparing the total value of water lost income of farmers was found that the supply of water from the perspective of farmers due to loss of income of farmers and the harmful effects of social-ecological entered the plains of Varamin due to lack of adequate supply of water. The results of this study can be used to planners and policy makers in the water sector it may act as a criterion in estimation of the benefits of new water transfer projects and water supply for reliable and adequate irrigation.

In the current situation, the orientation of the Islamic Republic of Iran's economic and social programs is towards encouraging the growth of the population. As the population grows, the need for wheat products in the country will increase, and issues such as reducing water resources will make the production of these products in the country face significant challenges. In addition, the country has always been exposed to political and economic threats because of being in a sensitive position in the Middle East. So far, many plans have been put in place to reduce the dependence on wheat imports and increase the level of self-sufficiency in producing this strategic product in the country. Thus, in this study, by designing a dynamic partial equilibrium model, the status of wheat self-sufficiency and population growth in the 1404 perspective of Iran and the effectiveness of guaranteed purchasing policy in this field were investigated. The results showed that in the horizon of 1404, whenever the guaranteed purchase price of wheat is equal to annual inflation, despite the increase in the population of the country, the self-sufficiency index of wheat production will decrease in fluctuations, in addition to the increase. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable self-sufficiency and reduce the dependence on imports of this product, it was suggested that the annual increase in the guaranteed purchase price of wheat would necessarily be proportional to the increase in inflation and also according to changes in the price of barley product.

Considering energy rebound effect, real energy savings are determined by the efficiency of resources. otherwise, creation an unrealistic place occur Economic analysis and planning. Therefore, the results of the policies applied are not desirable. In this paper, energy rebound effect of agricultural sectors was estimated in two models, with Divisia index and signification coefficient of fix effect Panel model, Cobb-Douglas function showed positive effect energy consumption of agricultural sub-sectors on agriculture Value Added during 1996– 2015, by least square method. The energy decomposition results of Divisia index method confirm energy intensity as the most effective factor in increasing energy consumption. energy rebound effect in two models decreasing trend respectively with an average annual 19. 38% and 16. 99%, i. e., an average with 80. 62% and 83. 01% saved expected energy savings. Given that effect energy intensity the most important factor on increasing energy consumption in the agricultural sectors and after planning subsidies down trend energy rebound effect has decreased, therefore planning and policy making In efficiency and energy rebound effect must do more attention.

Assessment of agriculture sustainability and recognizing weaknesses and strengths in each region can help legislators in adopting policies and strategies that correspond to the current situation. The purpose of this study is to assess the Iran’ s agriculture sustainability through sustainable agriculture indicators in five groups economic, social, environmental, technical and policy. In order to achieve this goal, using a stable composite index and measurement of weights based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process method, the overall level of agriculture sustainability has been determined for the first time in during the period of 2005-2015. The results showed that the agriculture sustainability combined index in Iran whit a mean of 0. 521 is in the average level of sustainability and the trend of this index over the years studied has increased from 0. 41 to 0. 65 at a rate of 0. 415. The provinces of Fars, Khorasan Razavi and East Azarbayegan have the best stability status respectively with 0. 683, 0. 653 and 0. 625 and the provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan, South Khorasan and Hormozgan with 0. 348, 0. 374 and 0. 397 have the weakest agriculture sustainability respectively. According to the average level of agricultural sustainability, is necessary to the custodians of the agriculture sector with invest in production infrastructure such as seed, fertilizer, use of modern irrigation systems and appropriate agricultural method take steps for agricultural sustainability development.

The Purpose of this study was to analyzing the solutions of microcredit funds to empower rural women (ERW) in Lorestan province. Statistical population of this research consisted the rural women of micro credit fund members in Lorestan province (N= 772) that 160 of them determined as a statistical sample by using Cochran’ s formula. Samples were selected based on multi stage sampling method and data were collected by questionnaire. Questionnaire's reliability and validity were confirmed respectively through computing Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0. 89) and content validity. Data analyzed by SPSS20 and LISREL8. 8 software. According to results of the exploratory factor analysis solutions of microcredit fund in the ERW in Lorestan province categorized in five factors that in order of importance are: 1) supporting members and directing their activities; 2) providing training to members and the board; 3) improving fund management; 4) utilizing side capacities; and 5) enhancing participatory spirit among Members. These solutions explained 68. 3% of the total variance. Results of the confirmatory factor analysis indicated the significance of these factors as solutions for improve the functioning of microcredit funds to ERW in Lorestan province.

From the past to now, the rural management issue always has been one of the most controversial topics in the academic and executive sector of the country. This led to the use of different management patterns by planners and authorities at different times. In recent years, the rural think tank became a new model for the comprehensive development of rural areas. It seems that this model tries to promote a comprehensive management quality in the field of socio-economic development of rural areas in all over the country. Studies showed that there was no research on the achievements of this new experience in rural areas of the country. Therefore, in this qualitative research, we tried to investigate the achievements of the rural think tank by using a case study in the village of Zardouee, Baiangan, Paveh city of Kermanshah province. For this purpose, information collected using semi-structured dialogue techniques, dialogue with key response, dialogue with focus groups, personal observations, drawing up the historical chart of the production system by the members, and reviewing the village biography. Then the extracted data were categorized using the contractual content analysis method. To determine the accuracy of the data four indexes was used including; acceptability, reliability and transferability. Based on the findings, the rural think tank in Zardouee has such accomplishments such as: participation, solving basic problems (problem-oriented), facilitating administrative affairs, training, elitism, employment, capacity building, reverse migration, marketing and market oriented and so on. According to the achivements of the rural Think tank, it is recommended to managers and rural development planners of the provinces; use this management model as a suitable model for realizing government goals and plans in rural areas.

Identifying the factors affecting job performance has always been one of the concerns of researchers. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships among social capital, job motivation, and job performance with the mediating role of organizational commitment. The statistical population of this research consisted of 635 agricultural experts of the Jihad-e-Agriculture organization in Hamedan Province (N=365). According to Cochran's formula, a sample of 242 experts was chosen through random stratified sampling method. Data was collected using four standardized self-administered scales including social capital scale (Carmeli et al., 2009), job motivation scale (Amabile et al., 1994), organizational commitment scale (Allen & Meyer, 1990) and job performance scale (Patterson, 1992). The reliability of the questionnaire was confirmed using Cronbach’ s alpha coefficient (0. 94≥ α ≥ 0. 64). Data were then analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modelling by the help of SmartPLS 3 software. Results indicated that organizational commitment was significantly related to job performance and it also mediated the social capital-job performance and job motivation-job performance relationships. Drawing on the findings, it can be stated that the improvement of employees’ commitment through factors such as social capital and job motivation, can improve their job performance.

The main objective of this study was to determine an optimal cropping pattern in a productive unit located in Pishva County based on regional and national comparative advantage analysis. In order to achieve this goal, the physical indices of the comparative advantage of production including scale advantage, efficiency advantage, and aggregative advantage with the export advantage of both agronomic and greenhouse crops were calculated. The research was an empirical study based on field survey. Data were gathered through a questionnaire, interview with experts from Varamin Agricultural unit and statistical reports from the Ministry of Jihad-Iran Agriculture and FAO. The results of the study showed that the current cropping pattern of Varamin production unit has scale, efficiency and aggregative advantage and therefore the current farming pattern should be continued. These crops also had efficiency advantage in regional level according to Pishva County cropping pattern Analysis. The analysis of the comparative advantage of greenhouse products at the regional level showed that cucumber, colored pepper and tomatoes had comparative advantage in the province of Tehran. The revealed comparative advantage also showed that cucumbers, colored peppers and greenhouse tomatoes, along with cabbage (leaves, flowers and broccoli), have an export advantage at the national level. Therefore, the optimal cropping pattern of the agricultural unit can be reached through continuing the current cropping pattern along with the addition of greenhouse products with regional advantage and cabbage crop with national and export advantage.

Aquaculture as an agricultural activity is one of the recent agricultural development approaches in rural areas, which, in addition to its important role in food production, plays a significant role in job creation. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of aquaculture in salmon dairy ponds in improving the livelihood of households working in these units. The research is a descriptive-analytic type with a survey method. Required data were collected using both library studies and field method using a questionnaire instrument. The statistical population consisted of all 130 heads of households with a dual-purpose pool across rural areas of Hamadan province. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a panel of experts from Bu-Ali Sina University. In order to verify the reliability of the questionnaire, the Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used which its value in the five capital categories and livelihoods were higher than 0. 7 and 0. 94 in total was obtained. SPSS22 software was used to analyze the data. Research findings showed that aquaculture has affected the improvement of livelihoods (natural, financial, physical, human and social) of the subjects. The findings of the research indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between the five livelihoods with households' livelihood. The results from regression analysis totally explained 56. 3 percent of dependent variable (households’ livelihood level) by four mail assets including: financial, human, natural, and social assets. So it can give this knowledge in order to promote and sustain the livelihood of the target community, it should have a multi-faceted, at the same time omnipresent look.

One of the basic issues of educational life of individuals and the education system of countries is academic failure and the slow and uneven progress of academic achievement among students. Generally, academic achievement as a dependent variable is not affected by only one factor, but there are several factors such as cognitive and meta-cognitive skills that could affect it. In this study, we used structural equation modeling to investigate the effect of meta-cognitive skills and Academic self-efficacy on academic achievement of students. We provided a questionnaire consists of subscales of meta-cognitive skills, educational self-efficacy and achievement using Morgan table and the stratified sampling method with proportional allocation of 120 agricultural students of Saravan Institute of higher education to be answered. Results showed that there is a significant and a direct relationship between the meta-cognitive skills and academic self-efficacy. Academic self-efficacy also has a direct and significant effect on educational achievement of students, but meta-cognitive skills affect Academic achievement in an indirectly. In the following, we discussed the results and presented a few suggestions for improving meta-cognitive skills and academic self-efficacy of students.

Increasing rates of environmental crisis, poverty, unemployment and outmigration have made it necessary to concern rural entrepreneurship. Therefore, the objective of this study was investigating the determinants and drivers of developing rural entrepreneurship in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, meta-analysis was performed on 34 rural entrepreneurship studies that were publicized until February 2017. Also, the supporting drivers of developing rural entrepreneurship were identified through systematic review of 15 studies. Findings revealed that effect sizes of the factors that determine rural entrepreneurship are not the same. However, years of experience, parents’ job, attitude toward entrepreneurship and social communication have large effect sizes. Since the majority of effect sizes were not uniform across all studies, the moderate effects of gender and level of development on rural entrepreneurship were investigated. The results indicated that these heterogeneities are due to degree of effect size and they do not influence statistical significance of the effects. Furthermore, the systematic review clarified that the following drivers play important roles in developing rural entrepreneurship; entrepreneurial skills, entrepreneurial culture, modification or enactment of rules and laws and access to financial resources.

Determinants of behavioral change toward organic farming among the farmers of Bushehr province was the main purpose of the study. Data collection was accomplished using survey and a sample of 101 farmers was selected using stratified random sampling from the counties of Bushehr, Dayyer and Jom-o-riz. Face validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a group of professors and specialists of agricultural research center. The reliability was also confirmed by a pilot study with 30 farmers out of the study region and the Cronbach`s alpha was computed in a range of 0. 60 to 0. 91. Findings revealed that farmers have been used biological control techniques as well as green fertilizers more than the other methods of organic farming. According to the causal model, agricultural background, the use of communicative media and its effectiveness, attitude toward conventional agricultural consequences, knowledge about organic farming, attitude toward reference group, attitude toward environment and human health and attitude toward organic farming are affecting factors of organic farming activities by the farmers. Finally, some recommendations were presented: Selection and training of the educated individuals in order to promote organic farming in the area, facilitating the basic factors for this modern way of farming, assigning this task to the centers of agricultural extension and services, enhancement of scientific and practical skills of the experts and extension agents in terms of organic farming and healthy products.

The beekeeping industry is one of the major agricultural production sectors could results in provide relatively high employment with relatively low capital and knowledge management in this industry by beekeepers along with the precise implementation of the value chain can play an effective role in boosting the industry more. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of knowledge management on the value chain in the beekeeping industry in Ardebil province. This research was descriptive and the study population was bearded in Ardebil province (N = 3900). The research sample was determined using the Cochran formula of 188 people. The main tool used in the present study was a questionnaire it’ s reliability was confirmed by experts and its reliability was based on Cronbach's alpha coefficients. The collected data were analyzed in two sections of descriptive and inferential statistics in SPSS16 software. The results of regression model showed that knowledge management dimensions have a positive and significant effect on the value chain in beekeeping industry. Among the dimensions of knowledge management, has the most impact on the knowledge and knowledge of the value chain in the beekeeping industry. Given the square multiple correlation (0. 62), the satisfied model has the ability to explain the behavior of the dependent variable.