ECONOMIC RESEARCH REVIEW
Year:2002 | Volume:2 | Issue:5|Papers Count:17

The main purpose of this article is to survey the relationship between the export of engineering and technical services and economic growth. Export of engineering & technical services not only is the part of non-oil export that affect on economic growth but also is important on promotion of technological potentials. In other words, export of engineering and technical services causes raising export and have effect on productivity, then it can affect on economic growth. In this paper we use two Models. The first Model Applies annual data during (1959-1999) and the second Model Applies seasonal data during (1994-1999). In order to test empirically, we use vector autoregressive (VAR). The result of each Model indicates that non-oil export and export of engineering & technical services has positive effect on economic growth. In addition, we have also discussed various impulses on economic growth. Finally, with the method of variance decomposition, we examine the effect of variable changes on economic growth.

Hidden nature of underground economy makes it difficult to measure and carry out a direct study on it. Thus, most of the common measurement procedures are the ones that indirectly estimate the extent of these activities and suffer from restrictive assumptions. In the past two decades, economists have begun to pay attention to measurement of underground economy volume and studying its causes and effects more than before. As a result a larger part of economic literature has been devoted to the studies which have been done on this subject. Although evidences are indicative of the probable prevalence of this phenomenon in Iranian economy, limited amount of study has been conducted on its nature and volume as well as its effects on the socio-economic affairs of country. By definition, the underground economy are those that take place legally or illegally without being registered in the official statistics. Accordingly, the underground economy activities can be categorised into four groups, namely household, informal, irregular and illegal sectors. This research represents various methods for estimating the volume of underground economy and applies one of the-regression method (ols)- to estimate the extend of underground economy in Iran during the period of 1355-79(1976-2000) This resarch makes use of the "demand for money" method which has very limitations and enjoy considerable benefits for measuring illegal economy in Iran. Tax burden variables, exchange burden, narcotic index, average tariff rate and exchange rate difference have been used in the estimation models as the factors of formation and development of Iranian black economy. Demand for currency variables and demand for money have been mentioned as the indicators of reflecting black economy effect. Estimating the black economy in Iran by using the selected model shows that this part of the country"s public economy performance has experienced considerable growth during the previous decade and it requires the researchers and policy-makers to pay more attention to it.

We begin the article by the evaluation of economic thoughts from 18th century to this date. Classical economists believed in the invisible hands and market mechanism, and in their opinion there was no need for any government intervention in the economy. With Keynesian Revolution and the full employment objective, we see the increasing government intervention and emergence of welfare state. Neoclassical economist emphasized the classical ideas again and Neo-Liberals were against any government intervention.In the second half of 20th century the globalization process speeded up, with the advancement in technology we have lower transportation and lower communication cost and better access to informations all over the world.Speed in globalization process has increased competition all over the world and the ease with which capital can move, the power of capital has increased and the power of government and labour has decreased. Thus wages now is lower and unempolyment rate is higher.

Almost all of the statistical observations concerning the economical variables use those experiments which take chaotic inputs as random inputs, while these sort of inputs are originated from determinable system which is linked with some disorder. Thus, some other kind of experiments have been developed of which 80S, Graoss berger, Prokachia and entropy of Colemo graph are among the most important ones. Applying these tests on daily TEPIX (Tehran Exchange Price Index) from 1996 till 2001 shows that we can"t reject the chaotic movement hypothesis in it"s trend.

The neoclassical growth model is tested by use of panel data procedure in this research. In the econometric test, simoultanously time series and cross detection will be compared on the basis of panel data method through which their observed points increase and consequently the estimation efficiency will be increased. The examination of neoclassical growth theory has been done with reference to external & internal factors of 52 selected countries from 1960 to 2000. The independent variable of model has been selected on the basis of the result of previous research which explains the result in three separate models: developed countries, developing countries, and whole countries. These factors are such as: Gross National Products with lag of period, work force age, growth rate, education level, the change of capital accumulation and economic trade volum. The consequences of this research is that: neoclassical growth model can explain the major part of economic growth of the countries with use of internal variables. Also with the use of panel procedure of fixed effect, we can see the fundamental differences and structure of the growth process for different countries; and show how the economic, and social conditions affect on the growth.

There is no doubt that research development in our country needs a strong national will power. It also needs a fundamental efforts for putting and placing it in it"s real position. In order to achieve the necessary glory and power in the political, social and scientific field of the country as well as today"s world society, and in order to guarantee it"s continuation, we need to make the development programme and determine research"s role and position. It is obvious that this is possible just through precise recognition of the country"s existing conditions and taking care of the problems of this section by relying upon the facilities, abilities, suitable oportunities and effecient managment. We should try to determine the objects and regulate logical, and fundemental programmes. In order to overcome the problems, we should imopse powerful scientific administration. In comparison with developed countries the state of main research indexs in the country particularly as regard to finance, manpower and the number of projects, is not suitable at all and is laging far behind them. Even if we increase the research budget upto 2% of GDP, still is not sufficient. Therefore this section needs a serious attention of the policy makers. Government agencies seem to be able to play an important role in making the research programmes successful, particularly the key organizations such as Ministry of Economic and Finance affairs,whose function, is the determination of monetary and financial policies. In spite of all the existing obstacles in research development, the role of research management in utilizing the facilities is quite important.

There are different procedures to survey and test banking optimization. To name a few, they are traditional national accounting, banking production function and financial procedures. Since each one of these procedures analyses a special case of banking optimization, hence it is quite possible to study effective factors on banking optimization in each field, by econometrics procedure. According to an econometrics survey, it seems that market structure in Islamic Republic of Iran is such that private sector can easily achieve it"s contribution in the financial atmosphere. At the same time by gradual omission of direct financial tools, the Centeral Bank should be anthorized, to the best of it"s ability, to control the value of money in the country through indirect monetary policies.

The role of agriculture in the economic development programms point of views, particularly from the economic production and food providing for an increasing. population of a society, should be paid attention and this must be don"e by the experts, planners and politicians. One of the obstacles which is always considered as a major problem in the way of development of this sector, is the risky dimension of manufacturing products. This problem is due to probable unforseeable accidents such as atmospheric variables and setting up of an organized agricultural sector. Hence Insuring agricultural products should be noticed inevitable for achieving the development target and must be considered as a special case. In this study by using meteorological variables such as heat, annual rain in terms of strategic agricultural products like wheat and irrigated cotton, production have been stimated in one hectare with the help of Eview software. The result shows that the performance reaction of irrigated cotton of Khorasan & Semnan provinces is diminishing against the heat and rain and the performance reaction of irrigated wheat of Fars, Lorestan and East Azarbaijan is increasing and as a result, protection of cotton of Khorasan and Lorestan as against heat and rain variables is recommended.

The government failure on privatization during the first and the second economic-social and cultural development plans caused the researchers to review and evaluate the performance of agencies responsible for implementing the government privatization policies. Some of the factors which may be responsible for the lack of success are as follows: Improper utilization of investment market, inadequate rules and regulations, lack of revision on tax laws, shortcomings on banking performances, lack of security for investment, and unusual expectation of private sector from the government"s performance during the last twelve years. Moreover, some of the conceptual, administrative, economical and physical barriers on the way of implementing privatization policy have been discussed in this paper.

This paper presents a study on oil"s importance in country"s economy. Our emphasis is on postrevolution economical enviroment. We study the impact of oil price on several parameters that influence the country"s agriculture sector. Based on the econometrics models presented in this paper, we study the importance of oil prices in this sector.

The findings of this article do not confirm the probable existence of asymmetry in economic cycles. Thus, in order to make a symbolic behavior out of bussiness cycles, we can use linear models. In fact, studing GNP and GDP, excluding the oil revenue, do not present any asymmetric evidence in the different bussiness cycles, but it can reject the symmetric bussiness cycle theory by a more powerful testing statistics and new statistical procedure, then in that case the assumption of symmetric bussiness cycles so the use of linear samples as a result, in foreseeing the economic time series behavior in the economic flactuation analysis will not have a scientific basis.

The present article tries to evaluate the general condition of the banks and their performances under the above mentioned title. Thus the performance of the banks in the country has been compared with the World Bank standard. Meanwhile, the procedures of promoting level of utilization and efficiency and new banking policies in the country have been discussed. Different banking indexes, such as index of investments, index of investment ratio to the total fixed assets, the indexes of debt receiving, letter of credits and bank garantees, indexes of resource absorption, indexes of profit earning in proportion to assets and liabilities. Giving weight to the indexes and the procedure of giving advantages to the bank on the base of bank ranking are some other issues that have been dicussed in this article.

At first this article, has a brief look at the classical and neoclassical economic growth models, and then the theory of internal growth has been introduced which is based on the internal models of growth. Permanent changes in variables such as: fiscal investment rates, human investment rates, the share of export, title holding, size of the government and the growth of the population must cause permanent changes in growth rates. After this introduction the economic growth in Iran has been considered between 1949 until 1999 to find the effect of social and economic variables on economic growth, VAR (Vecto Auto Reggressive) models has been used. The results show that, so far as human resources are concerned it makes positive effect on real economic growth either directly or indirectly.

Unemployment is a major economic constraint in many of the developing countries. The Iran"s economy is not an exception and surprisingly its unemployment rate has been an exceptional rate between the most of the above mentioned countries in the recent years. In this article, the author is trying to explore the factors influencing unemployment crisis in Iran. The results show that the unsuitable applied policies to control the population growth for the last two decades and the inefficient mechanisms of the macroeconomic factors are the main reasons have increased unemployment rate. The paper concludes that by looking at the statistical evidence, this trend will continue at least for the next decade. But the Government is trying to implement some strategies. That maybe have some effectiveness in decreasing this crisis. At the end of the article, the number of these strategies are offered.

The Effect of devaluation on the balance of trade has been examined I in 12 developing countries during 1968-95. The results show that Marshall-Lerner condition was satisfied in long term. The countries which experienced the condition in short term witnessed an improvement in their trade balances, too. The factors which may be significant are reduction in real exchange rate, effectiveness of nominal devaluation, compatible monetary and fiscal policies and absence of J-curve effect. In contrast the countries in which the conditions were not satisfied, faced with deterioration in their terms of trade. This happened because of rising real exchange rate, ineffectiveness of nominal devaluation and incompatible monetary and fiscal policies.

The world has entered the new millennium with globalization, cultural development and dialogue among civilizations forming the bases for the new world order and international relations. At the same time, the twenty-first century is characterized by rapid, unprecedented urbanization. Today, almost half of the world"s population live in urban areas, and the rapid increase in urban population is expected to continue, especially in developing countries. The powerful forces of globalization are further propelling this historic transition, the central challenge of the 21 century will be how to make both urbanization and globalization work for the benefit of all human kind, instead of leaving billions behind. world cities will be especially influential in shaping the development of the global economy. Technological advances and easy access to information will enable cities to create more efficient ways of production, while capitalizing on the cheapest sources of materials. Urbanization in a "Globalizing World" is an authoritative assessment of the three most significant forces shaping the world today. It is essential to understand that urbanization, civilization and globalization are positive forces of development in the 21 century. Cities are the centers of political power and industrial might, higher education and technological innovation, artistic achievement and medical advances. They are the great markets of today, the hubs of specialization and interaction, the sources of news and information, the suppliers of services, and the providers of sports and entertainment. In short, cities are the crucibles of civilization. Cities of the future have more freedom. Greater freedom will be enjoyed by individuals and institutions because they will be networked electronically. Wired interactions will supplement face to face contacts. This will affect urban lifestyles as people can work at home, shop by computers and travel with credit cards. Urbanization is not evenly distributed around the globe. In western Europe, the United States, Canada, and Japan, four out of five citizens live in cities or towns. But in India and China, the figure is closer to three out of ten, but even where urbanization still is low, people are moving to the towns and cities. Globalization has not been a boom to all cities, While it has brought new opportunities and wealth to some cities, it has marginalized others, the marginalized city can be found anywhere in the world, but especially in Africa. It lacks the requisite information infrastructure and is generally not able to plug into the global economy.