MODARRES HUMAN SCIENCES
Year:2006 | Volume:10 | Issue:4 (TOM 49)|Papers Count:11

Today, stock investment has become an important mean of national finance.Apparently, it is significant for investors to estimate the stock price and select the trading chance accurately in advance, which will bring high return to stockholders. In the past, long-term trading processes and many technical analysis methods for stock market were put forward. However, stock market is a nonlinear system, due to the political, economical and psychological impact factors. Thus, it is difficult for us to use traditional analysis tools to make stock transaction decision. With the developmenting of nonlinear methods such as neural networks and fuzzy neural networks, we can now use these methods for stock price forecasting.In this research, we presented three scenarios: 1) stock price forecasting with classical methods approach, 2) stock price forecasting with artificial intelligence methods approach, and 3) stock price forecasting with hybrid model. Therefore, first, we designed classical models such as exponential smoothing, trend analysis, and ARIMA, then artificial intelligent models such as neural networks and fuzzy neural networks were designed, next the third scenario i.e., hybrid model, was presented. Finally, the scenarios were measured. The experimental result showed that the hybrid model had more accuracy than the classical or artificial intelligent models. The hybrid model enjoyed also such properties as fast convergence, high precision and strong function approximation ability, therefore, it is suitable for real stock price forecasting.

This article was developed on the base of the findings of a research named "Designing a public policy making system to achieve social justice, based on Alavian truth-oriented model of governance" (2004).Every public policy making system is usually designed based on a set of principles and fundamental statements; the principles that are impacted: from dominant doctrines of political philosophy schools in their social environment. Usually these doctrines are formulated by ideological challenges, ethical discourses or reasonable consensus. But, to conceptualize the truth oriented justice, it is important to regard logical analytical method for referring and formulating the statements to establish a reliable knowledge based system. So, applying comparative analysis and logical analytical method will help the transaction from truth-directed system to truth-oriented system. In this method, after introduction and acceptance of a set of reasonable principles, several theorems were extracting. (These principles were extracted from Nahjolballagha but were formulated based on logical analytical method); and the final logical system was made based on these principles and theorems.Accordingly, we can benchmark these statements as one of the best systems for assessing the doctrines of other systems. In this way, the universal declaration of human rights, as best verbal artifacts of human being, was compared with this system, using a comparative approach. Finally, the valuable results of the truth oriented system were emphasized.

Human’s way of life is placing an increasing burden on the planet. We are damaging the natural environment and imposing on the nature for excess of needs dictated by ecological and biological dimensions. This implies, damaging the life of the next generations and negating the principles of sustainable development. Humans detrimental behavior is based on principles of growth paradigm, in which, human comsumption patterns have negative effects on the environment. The current model of development is unsustainable and can not secure the future of human beings on the planet.This article identifies similarities and differences of the paradigms of growth and sustainability. The main contribution of the article is to develop a new conceptual frameworks for sustainable development by including political parameter as an extra dimension and presenting two conceptual frameworks:1) for humans and eco-systems wellbeing and 2) for the process of change.

This paper tries to identify and compare the levels and frameworks of innovation systems (IS) approach. Innovation systems approach is a new approach to innovation and technology development that developed and evolved in the recent two decades. This approach is a systemic approach to innovation. Consisted of three parts, part one tries to identify and analyze the existing different analytical approaches of Innovation systems, the second part focuses on knowledge, types of knowledge, interactions between knowledge and nature of generating and using of knowledge as the base of innovation, and the third part compares three main frameworks of innovation systems from knowledge perspective to recognize differences of the mentioned frame works.

This research was accomplished to design and to verify a model for analyzing of group factors affective on creativity in the research institutions. To achieve this goal, after studying the creativity literature, we presented a conceptual model based on the mentioned literature, containing four variables: creativity, group diversity, group cohesiveness and group communications system. Based on the conceptual model, a questionnaire was developed to measure the variables. We controlled and surveyed their contents and finally 308 questionnaires were gathered.Then the obtained data were analyzed according to the research hypothesis with the help of a software named LISREL8.5 in the form of a model: the obtained results showed that the group cohesiveness directly, the group communications system indirectly and the group diversity directly and indirectly are effective in the researchers creativity of the research institutions.

Economic environments have a profound effect on the growth of the insurance industry. History has shown that, although the performance of the insurance industry is closely linked to economic conditions, it has been able to survive in different economic environments. This study is undertaken to examine the demand for life insurance in Iran from a macroeconomic perspective. More formally, the work was carried out in order to study the interaction between the macroeconomic and demographic variables (i.e. financial development, income, inflation, interest rate, price, stock market return and life expectancy) and the demand for life insurance in order to seek evidence of their relationship in the context of Iran for the period 1369-83 (1990-2004).The major findings of this study indicated that the saving deposits rate, price change, income, stock marked return and life expectancy in insurance are important macroeconomic variables associated with the demand for life insurance in Iran.Further a change in the price of insurance has a significant negative relationship with the demand for life insurance. These findings have an important implication on policy formulation and also for the policy markers in developing pricing strategies for the policy makers.

Empirical sciences are systems of theories. Scientifics theories build up the human's knowledge realm through explaining the phenomena and develop it by raising new issues and participating in the formation of new theories in responding them. This article presents a systematic method for theory building in managerial Studies as well as human oriented researches. The theories take shape by means of extracting and organizing the "concepts" hidden in the research subjects. This logic merges the empirical knowledge (singular statement)with the theorems (universal statements) by justification and generates new deductive theorems with scientific validity. Thus, in the present research "Grounded Theory" (GT) was presented as a widely accepted methodology and the theory building process was explained by means of GT. An experience of theory building in managerial research was then presented to enlighten the process more clearly. This research studied twelve failed companies to find out the reasons behind the crashed strategies and the findings were presented in the pattern of two theories. The trustworthiness of the two theories was introduced through "falsification" at the end of the article.The main purpose of this research was to familiarize the human science researchers with ''theory building" and to report an actual work through the use of this me methodology. Even though it was restricted to summarizing due to its short structure.

Creating and protecting competitive advantage by organizations in the 21st century, requires identifying affective environmental changes on organizations, agility and adoption with those changes and increasing capability for answering the various needs of customers. Only learning organizations have these properties.For being learning, organizations apply a process that includes four sub processes including: I) identifying and creating information, 2) interpreting and transforming information, 3) applying information at work/ creating knowledge, and 4) institutionalizing of knowledge. Applying these processes requires organizational fitness and specific characteristics of leadership, manpower, organizational design, organizational culture, mission and strategies. These characteristics facilitate learning and becoming learning organization.Innovative aspect of this research is that it provides a model that identifies learning levels of the automobile pieces manufacturing firms based on learning process and learning organization characteristics. The obtained results indicated that learning level differs from one firm to another and we can divide all organizations to three levels: 1) data oriented, 2) information oriented and 3) knowledge oriented with respect to their focus on data, information and knowledge. Considering how much learning process is applied and how much characteristics of learning organizations are obtained, each organization lays on one of the mentioned category levels.

The purpose of this study is to explain the ability of the computer simulation methodology to improve productivity of a production system. At the beginning, it demonstrates how simulation can be employed in productivity analysis. In this regard, a case study approach was used and the proposal methodology was implemented to represent the simulation capability to enhance the productivity in the case study. An explanation of the existing system was presented and the corresponding model called AS-IS model was designed, then the model was runnel and the output was analyzed. The results of the study showed the bottlenecks and performance measures of the existing system and the initiated two models according to the simulation output, called TO-BE models.The results obtained from the simulation experiment showed the performance measure in the TO-BE models. The manager of the company has selected the TOBE2 model as the best alternative based on the economical and others measure.

The purpose of this study is to explain the ability of the simulation methodology to consider uncertainty of the multi criteria decisions making. The rank order of decision alternatives depends on two types of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty associated with the decision making judgment regarding each element of decision matrix described by distribution function, and (2) uncertainty regarding the future characteristics of the decision making environment described by a set of scenarios. Scenario is description of the decision making environment into some separate situations. Researchers concentrate on this type of uncertainty less than other types.Both types of uncertainty are capable to opposite the rank of alternatives and decline the certainty of decision maker to the rank order of alternatives. In The present research, a simulation approach for handling both types of related uncertainty was described. The final conclusions showed that when uncertainty associated with the decision making judgment regarding each element of decision matrix increases, the probability of rank reversion and rank uncertainty increases too. Under these situations, the final ranking of the alternatives is probabilistic.