JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
Year:2011 | Volume:11 | Issue:2|Papers Count:7

According to Barro–Ricardo theorem, government budget deficit has not an effect on the consumption. Inspired by the theory of life cycle and permanent income, they believe that, since the government finances the budget deficits through issuing bonds, in future government will offset it by increasing taxes. Therefore, the consumption does not change. In this paper we test this theory and get positive result by estimating the consumption function of Iran. In Iran budget deficit is usually financed by expansion of liquidity through borrowing from central bank or by selling foreign currencies and not by issuing bonds. Therefore the budget deficit in Iran will remain neutral as a result.

This paper seeks to respond to this major question that if Iran accedes to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and observes copyrights, in the realm of intellectual property, what demand and supply changes would occur in Iran’s book market. To respond the above question first some instances of breaching the copyrights in book publishing sector is investigated. Then calculating the price and income elasticity, the impact of observing the copyrights on price and income, and therefore on the demand and supply for books in short term is demonstrated. The findings of this research reveal that with accession of Iran to WTO and observation of copyright, some of the subsidies to the book sector must be terminated, and also the non-national authors would receive royalties. With elimination of subsidies and payment of royalties book price will increase by an average of 7.5 percent and demand would decrease by 13.35 percent. But, supply will show less sensitivity and its increase in short term would be insignificant. Yet, as experienced in other countries, for numerous reasons such as entering the international markets and increased quality, the printing volume of books will increase. In long term, the experiences of other countries have shown the same trend.

Manufacturing sector has an outstanding potential in production, employment, value added and income. This sector also procures machinery and equipment for other sectors .Since a large part of the government investments are allocated to the manufacturing sector; it needs special consideration for the optimum allocation of the limited resources. In this study we have surveyed various strategies covering import substitution, export promotion, basic export and balanced and unbalanced growth. With regard to Iran’s situation and characteristics such as resources, specialties, infrastructure, the unbalanced growth pattern is recommended. The input-output backward and forward linkages have been investigated via the input-output table. Different techniques have been used such as principal component, factor analysis and numerical taxonomy.

Price manipulation in the Tehran Stock Exchange has been one of the most widely discussed issues among academic and professional practitioners in recent years. In this article, we first calculated the abnormal Returns- significance difference between actual and risk-based adjusted expected returns- by using an autoregressive test, for all 130 accepted firms in the Tehran stock market during 2002-2006, which seemed to be manipulated, since they had experienced great fluctuations in their stock prices. For any firm, if changes in share prices are not at random and/or its stock prices are autocorrelated with the past ones, it can be concluded that the firm is under a price manipulation. In the next stage, we have developed a binary logit regression model for predicting the firms' price manipulation based on four factors i.e. the information transparency, the liquidity of the shares, the size (capital) of the firm and the P/E ratio. Finally, the model efficiency for predicting price manipulation in the Tehran Stock Exchange is validated by using appropriate statistical tests such as, The Wald, Likelihoods Function, and the Wilk's Lambda tests. The results showed that the model is efficient and robust for predicting the price manipulation (P<0.05, Wilk's Lambda=0.205, Cox & Snell R2=0.792, 0.799, -2Log likelihood= 27.49).

The goal of this paper is investigating the relationship between unemployment rate and government size in Iran. For that, we have used some VAR models, which include the following variables: government size which is measured by total government outlays as a percentage of GDP, unemployment rate, real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, and minimum wage. The results reveal that a large government sector would raise unemployment, and an increase in GDP growth rate, inflation rate and minimum wages are likely to decrease unemployment rate.

This article analyses the effects of foreign exchange commitment and exchange rate unification policies on Iran’s non-oil exports during the last three decades. In addition, the effects of these policies on non-oil exports have empirically been estimated. For this purpose, an export supply model was estimated using the econometrics technique of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and reliable Iranian data for the last three decades. The empirical results of this paper shows that during the entire period of 1977-2008, foreign exchange commitment policy has caused non-oil exports to decline, but exchange rate unification policy has had positive effects on Iran’s non-oil exports.

This paper is aimed at analyzing population density, population division and economic distance on regional economic growth, using Panel Data models for 28 provinces of Iran over the period 2001-2006. The results show that religious and ethnic divisions and economic distance have negative effect and population density has positive effect on regional economic growth in Iran.