SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL IN THE ENSO-BASED PREDICTION OF AUTUMNAL DRYNESS AND WETNESS IN IRAN

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NAZEM ALSADAT S.M.J.; ANSARI BASIR A.; PISHVAEI MOHAMMAD REZA

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2007 | Volume:3 | Issue:1 (7) Page(s): 12-24

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Title

SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL IN THE ENSO-BASED PREDICTION OF AUTUMNAL DRYNESS AND WETNESS IN IRAN

Author(s)

NAZEM ALSADAT S.M.J. | ANSARI BASIR A. | PISHVAEI MOHAMMAD REZA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

IRANQ2

DROUGHTQ2

ENSOQ4

EL NINOQ4

PRECIPITATIONQ2

FISHER EXACT TESTQ4

CONTINGENCY TABLEQ3

Abstract

Reliable prediction of dry and wet periods is an essential component in competent management of water resources. A more reliable prediction of the climate, pushes the public approach to these predictions further and lowers the disaster costs. Since the (ENSO)1 has recently been introduced as an important predictor for the anticipation of seasonal wet and dry conditions in IRAN, the present study evaluates the significance level of such prediction for autumal and sixmonthly (October-march) PRECIPITATION using FISHER EXACT TEST. Using the summer time (SOI)3 as the predictor, the significance of the occurrence of meteorological dry and wet conditions during following autumn is investigated. It has been shown that after a strong El, Nifio event in summer (SOI<-5), wet conditions are anticipated for most parts of the country at a 95% significance level. On the other hand, the prediction of dry conditions is not significant for such an event. It has found that the occurrence of normal rather than wet or dry conditions is significant for the eastern coasts of the Caspian Sea as the El Nifio is prevalence. During strong vigorous cold ENSO periods (SOI>5), the occurrence of autumnal dry conditions are significant for most of the studied stations at the 95% level. During such periods the prediction of wet conditions were found to be statistically meaningless for all parts of the country. It is shown that the occurrence of summer EI Nifio leads to the dominance of wet conditions in about half of the studied stations. The prevalence of summer La Nina does not however lead to the wide spread six-monthly DROUGHT.

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APA: Copy

NAZEM ALSADAT, S.M.J., ANSARI BASIR, A., & PISHVAEI, MOHAMMAD REZA. (2007). SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL IN THE ENSO-BASED PREDICTION OF AUTUMNAL DRYNESS AND WETNESS IN IRAN. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 3(1 (7)), 12-24. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100135/en

Vancouver: Copy

NAZEM ALSADAT S.M.J., ANSARI BASIR A., PISHVAEI MOHAMMAD REZA. SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL IN THE ENSO-BASED PREDICTION OF AUTUMNAL DRYNESS AND WETNESS IN IRAN. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2007;3(1 (7)):12-24. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100135/en

IEEE: Copy

S.M.J. NAZEM ALSADAT, A. ANSARI BASIR, and MOHAMMAD REZA PISHVAEI, “SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL IN THE ENSO-BASED PREDICTION OF AUTUMNAL DRYNESS AND WETNESS IN IRAN,” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 3, no. 1 (7), pp. 12–24, 2007, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100135/en

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