BAYESIAN NETWORK MODEL FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL EFFECT ON DEBRIS FLOW FORECASTING IN ALBORZ ZONE OF IRAN

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TANHAPOUR M.; BANIHABIB M.E.; ROOZBAHANY A.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2018 | Volume:13 | Issue:4 Page(s): 118-131

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Title

BAYESIAN NETWORK MODEL FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL EFFECT ON DEBRIS FLOW FORECASTING IN ALBORZ ZONE OF IRAN

Author(s)

TANHAPOUR M. | BANIHABIB M.E. | ROOZBAHANY A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

ANTECEDENT RAINFALLQ1

DEBRIS FLOWQ1

UNCERTAINTYQ2

BAYESIAN NETWORKQ1

Abstract

Comprehensive assessment of DEBRIS FLOW hazards is a challenging issue due to its complex and uncertain nature. In this paper, the effect of ANTECEDENT RAINFALL (AR) on the DEBRIS FLOW occurrence in Alborz Zone, Iran, was assessed using BAYESIAN NETWORKs (BN). In this model, the effect of factors such as average basin height, average basin slope, watershed area, the current rainfall, AR (three days preceding the event), and discharge for one-day ahead have been used as the model’s input. Six scenarios were considered including the amounts of AR three days preceding separately, AR two days preceding separately, AR one day preceding, cumulative rainfall of AR three days preceding, cumulative rainfall of AR two days preceding, and the effect of excluding AR. The results indicated that the performance of BN model in the first scenario is %13 better than in the second scenario. The highest accuracy of the model was obtained for the scenario of AR 3 days preceding separately, with a forecasting accuracy of %91. Furthermore, excluding the effect of any of the AR events from the model declined its performance. The proposed model is able to provide reliable results in warning systems for DEBRIS FLOW hazards in watersheds.

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APA: Copy

TANHAPOUR, M., BANIHABIB, M.E., & ROOZBAHANY, A.. (2018). BAYESIAN NETWORK MODEL FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL EFFECT ON DEBRIS FLOW FORECASTING IN ALBORZ ZONE OF IRAN. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 13(4 ), 118-131. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100317/en

Vancouver: Copy

TANHAPOUR M., BANIHABIB M.E., ROOZBAHANY A.. BAYESIAN NETWORK MODEL FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL EFFECT ON DEBRIS FLOW FORECASTING IN ALBORZ ZONE OF IRAN. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2018;13(4 ):118-131. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100317/en

IEEE: Copy

M. TANHAPOUR, M.E. BANIHABIB, and A. ROOZBAHANY, “BAYESIAN NETWORK MODEL FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL EFFECT ON DEBRIS FLOW FORECASTING IN ALBORZ ZONE OF IRAN,” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 13, no. 4 , pp. 118–131, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100317/en

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