THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (CASE STUDY: LAKE ZAREBAR BASIN)

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FARMANBAR Z.; DELAVAR M.; IMANI AMIRABADI S.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2018 | Volume:13 | Issue:4 Page(s): 75-88

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Title

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (CASE STUDY: LAKE ZAREBAR BASIN)

Author(s)

FARMANBAR Z. | DELAVAR M. | IMANI AMIRABADI S. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CLIMATE CHANGEQ2

REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENTQ1

ZAREBAR LAKEQ1

SWATQ1

Abstract

CLIMATE CHANGE and prediction of its impactson Earth’s system is an important issue in order to reduce the vulnerability and to have appropriate measures to deal with it. In this context, deep uncertainty is the key factor in CLIMATE CHANGE studies. In this study we used the REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT framework (RRA) to integrate assessment of river basin situation considering deep uncertainties. In this regard, the Zrebar Lake basin was selected as a case study for assessing the proposed methodology. The calibrated SWAT model was used for simulation of the Zrebar Lake basin in the base and CLIMATE CHANGE condition. The downscaled outputs of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios of nine GCM models in three projected periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) were entered into the model to simulate the effects of CLIMATE CHANGE. After assessing changes in vulnerable factors in ZAREBAR LAKE basin in order to improve the condition of these factors, adaptation strategies were evaluated with REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT framework. The results showed that the mean annual temperature was increased by 0.3°C in the first projection period, by 0.6°C in the second projection period and by about 1°C by the end of the twenty-first century. Also the mean annual precipitation in the three projected periods was increased respectively by about 38.5, 66.0 and 87.1 mm. Assessment of the CLIMATE CHANGE impacts on risk receptors showed that the crop yield and the recharge of aquifers faced the greatest damage under CLIMATE CHANGE condition. Also, rainfed wheat dealt with more damage compared to other crops. The results indicated the need for appropriate infrastructure in order to cope with the effects of the CLIMATE CHANGE.

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APA: Copy

FARMANBAR, Z., DELAVAR, M., & IMANI AMIRABADI, S.. (2018). THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (CASE STUDY: LAKE ZAREBAR BASIN). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 13(4 ), 75-88. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100329/en

Vancouver: Copy

FARMANBAR Z., DELAVAR M., IMANI AMIRABADI S.. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (CASE STUDY: LAKE ZAREBAR BASIN). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2018;13(4 ):75-88. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100329/en

IEEE: Copy

Z. FARMANBAR, M. DELAVAR, and S. IMANI AMIRABADI, “THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (CASE STUDY: LAKE ZAREBAR BASIN),” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 13, no. 4 , pp. 75–88, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100329/en

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