FORECASTING OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION USING M5 MODEL TREE AND CLASSIC STATISTICAL METHODS (CASE STUDY: OROUMIEH SYNOPTIC STATION) (TECHNICAL NOTE)

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VAKILI SH.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2018 | Volume:13 | Issue:4 Page(s): 179-183

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Title

FORECASTING OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION USING M5 MODEL TREE AND CLASSIC STATISTICAL METHODS (CASE STUDY: OROUMIEH SYNOPTIC STATION) (TECHNICAL NOTE)

Author(s)

VAKILI SH. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CLASSIC STATISTICAL METHODSQ1

M5 MODEL TREEQ1

WEKA SOFTWAREQ1

CORRELATION COEFFICIENTQ2

Abstract

This study is carried out to estimate monthly rainfall data of Oroumieh station which are assumed to be lost from 2006 to 2007. This is performed using CLASSIC STATISTICAL METHODS and M5 MODEL TREE employing the software Weka based on data from Mahabad, Khoy, Salmas, Makoo, and Tekab stations. Among the studied stations, Mahabad station (R=0.90) had the highest correlation with Oroumieh station. From the 26 scenarios which were introduced to WEKA SOFTWARE for 10 year data of the nearby stations, the one which included three stations of Mahabad, Makoo and Tekab with MAE=7.19, R=0.90, and RMSE=9.64 was defined as the simplest and most accurate scenario due to the less input parameters to the model. Among the classical methods, the single best estimator (SIB) method has been selected as the best method with the highest CORRELATION COEFFICIENT and the lowest error (R=0.90, RMSE=10.51, and MAE=7.07). M5 MODEL TREE had the best performance in estimating data (R=0.91, RMSE=9.94, and MAE=7.29) and was considered as an alternative and applied method in the calculation of monthly precipitation data due to simple linear and comprehensible relationships.

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APA: Copy

VAKILI, SH.. (2018). FORECASTING OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION USING M5 MODEL TREE AND CLASSIC STATISTICAL METHODS (CASE STUDY: OROUMIEH SYNOPTIC STATION) (TECHNICAL NOTE). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 13(4 ), 179-183. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100331/en

Vancouver: Copy

VAKILI SH.. FORECASTING OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION USING M5 MODEL TREE AND CLASSIC STATISTICAL METHODS (CASE STUDY: OROUMIEH SYNOPTIC STATION) (TECHNICAL NOTE). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2018;13(4 ):179-183. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100331/en

IEEE: Copy

SH. VAKILI, “FORECASTING OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION USING M5 MODEL TREE AND CLASSIC STATISTICAL METHODS (CASE STUDY: OROUMIEH SYNOPTIC STATION) (TECHNICAL NOTE),” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 13, no. 4 , pp. 179–183, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100331/en

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