MODELING THE IMPACT OF WATERSHED PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES ON SURFACE WATER QUALITY AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF THE MODELS USING THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

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KARIMI SH.; JABBARIAN AMIRI B.; MALEKIAN A.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2018 | Volume:14 | Issue:3 Page(s): 304-317

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Title

MODELING THE IMPACT OF WATERSHED PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES ON SURFACE WATER QUALITY AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF THE MODELS USING THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

Author(s)

KARIMI SH. | JABBARIAN AMIRI B. | MALEKIAN A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

MODELINGQ2

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSISQ2

LINEAR REGRESSIONQ2

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONQ1

Abstract

MODELING of the relationship between physical characteristics of a catchment and water quality parameters plays a significant role in integrated watershed management. There is always an inevitable level of uncertainty in the process of such MODELING caused by errors in the input data, parameters, and the structure of the model. Therefore, quantifying the uncertainty in the output of the model is essential in order to reach certain forecasts in MODELING. In this research, water quality data, land use/land cover, land suitability map and geological map of catchments discharging to hydrometric stations located in the western part of the Caspian Sea were used. The MODELING was done using Multiple LINEAR REGRESSION Stepwise Method, while the model UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS was examined using MONTE CARLO SIMULATION. Based on the results of the correlation and regression analyses, it could be concluded that all these parameters have a strong positive correlation with a variety of human activities such as agriculture and urban development. This indicated that an increase in agricultural land or a decline in forest areas will ultimately lead to a decline in water quality. The results of the MONTE CARLO SIMULATION showed that although some models had high R-squared values, the possibility of negative outputs (Pr<0) generated by the model was also approximately high (merely positive values make sense regarding the water quality variables). Moreover, the visual assessment of the CDF curves implied that models of Ca2+, Mg2+and EC had higher uncertainty in predictability compared to Na+.

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APA: Copy

KARIMI, SH., JABBARIAN AMIRI, B., & MALEKIAN, A.. (2018). MODELING THE IMPACT OF WATERSHED PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES ON SURFACE WATER QUALITY AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF THE MODELS USING THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 14(3 ), 304-317. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100447/en

Vancouver: Copy

KARIMI SH., JABBARIAN AMIRI B., MALEKIAN A.. MODELING THE IMPACT OF WATERSHED PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES ON SURFACE WATER QUALITY AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF THE MODELS USING THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2018;14(3 ):304-317. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100447/en

IEEE: Copy

SH. KARIMI, B. JABBARIAN AMIRI, and A. MALEKIAN, “MODELING THE IMPACT OF WATERSHED PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES ON SURFACE WATER QUALITY AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF THE MODELS USING THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION,” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 14, no. 3 , pp. 304–317, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100447/en

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