PREDICTION OF DROUGHT WITH THE EMPIRICAL TRANSMISSION PROBABILITY MATRIX IN THE DIFFERENT PARTS OF IRAN

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DARYABARI S.J.

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Journal Paper

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Journal: JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES Year:2006 | Volume:5 | Issue:6-7 Page(s): 91-108

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Title

PREDICTION OF DROUGHT WITH THE EMPIRICAL TRANSMISSION PROBABILITY MATRIX IN THE DIFFERENT PARTS OF IRAN

Author(s)

DARYABARI S.J. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

DROUGHTQ2

EMPIRICAL TRANSMISSION PROBABILITY MATRIXQ3

MARKOV CHAINQ2

LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONQ2

STANDARD PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)Q3

Abstract

In this research the EMPIRICAL TRANSMISSION PROBABILITY MATRIX in the Different Parts of Iran has been produced with precipitation data recorded in the 26 synoptic stations in a 50 years period. For producing the DROUGHT transmission data matrix, has been used the Log-Normal that fitted to the data in different groups and regarding to the climate specification of the previous year the analogous groups were created. Then with calculating the maximum correction factor of the parameters m and d, the LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION was fitted to the DROUGHT data. By using the one-step and multi-step transmission probability matrix, the formation of DROUGHT variations was predicted with means of the past and present conditions of the climate. It will be possible to predict the DROUGHTs in the next 5 year with this EMPIRICAL TRANSMISSION PROBABILITY MATRIX.

Cites

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ANFIS AND GP TECHNIQUES IN PREDICTING HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT FROM METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT FOR THE SUFI-CHAI CATCHMENT

References

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APA: Copy

DARYABARI, S.J.. (2006). PREDICTION OF DROUGHT WITH THE EMPIRICAL TRANSMISSION PROBABILITY MATRIX IN THE DIFFERENT PARTS OF IRAN. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES, 5(6-7), 91-108. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/102174/en

Vancouver: Copy

DARYABARI S.J.. PREDICTION OF DROUGHT WITH THE EMPIRICAL TRANSMISSION PROBABILITY MATRIX IN THE DIFFERENT PARTS OF IRAN. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES[Internet]. 2006;5(6-7):91-108. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/102174/en

IEEE: Copy

S.J. DARYABARI, “PREDICTION OF DROUGHT WITH THE EMPIRICAL TRANSMISSION PROBABILITY MATRIX IN THE DIFFERENT PARTS OF IRAN,” JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES, vol. 5, no. 6-7, pp. 91–108, 2006, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/102174/en

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