Investigating of Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Iran, by Markov Switching Unit Root Test

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MAMIPOUR SIAB; Goodarzi Farzaneh

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: Journal of Economic Research Year:2020 | Volume:55 | Issue:2 Page(s): 437-462

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Investigating of Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Iran, by Markov Switching Unit Root Test

Author(s)

MAMIPOUR SIAB | Goodarzi Farzaneh | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Fiscal Policy Sustainability

Government Debt

Nonlinear Unit Root

Markov Switching Model

Iran

Abstract

Because of the importance of the state of financial stability in the economy and its impact on economic growth, we tried to test the fiscal sustainability in Iran by using the nonlinear Markov Switching unit root test from 1973 to 2017. The results obtained from the linear and Nonlinear Unit Root tests show that the fiscal state is unstable in two different regimes entitled high and low fluctuations, and the fiscal policy during the studied period has been experienced an unstable situation. In other words, increasing Government Debt at a given period has not declined over time and has accumulated in the coming years, and government fiscal policies, regardless of accumulated debt compensation, expands spending policies. Therefore, serious consideration of this issue and formulation of fiscal policy, especially budgeting and strengthening of long-term Government Debt repayment paths to achieve financial sustainability status, is one of the policy recommendations of this paper for economic planners and decision-makers in Iran. Also, it is expected that, regardless of these considerations, the Iranian economy has always suffered from the accumulation of Government Debts over time.

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APA: Copy

MAMIPOUR, SIAB, & Goodarzi, Farzaneh. (2020). Investigating of Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Iran, by Markov Switching Unit Root Test. TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, 55(2 ), 437-462. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/1038948/en

Vancouver: Copy

MAMIPOUR SIAB, Goodarzi Farzaneh. Investigating of Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Iran, by Markov Switching Unit Root Test. TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI[Internet]. 2020;55(2 ):437-462. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/1038948/en

IEEE: Copy

SIAB MAMIPOUR, and Farzaneh Goodarzi, “Investigating of Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Iran, by Markov Switching Unit Root Test,” TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, vol. 55, no. 2 , pp. 437–462, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/1038948/en

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