THE EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVE FACTORS ON BUSINESS CYCLES IN IRAN'S ECONOMY

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SHARIFAZADEH M.R.; KAGHAZIAN S.

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Journal: Journal of Iran's Economic Essays; an Islamic approach Year:2008 | Volume:5 | Issue:9 Page(s): 199-236

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Title

THE EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVE FACTORS ON BUSINESS CYCLES IN IRAN'S ECONOMY

Author(s)

SHARIFAZADEH M.R. | KAGHAZIAN S. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

POTENTIAL GDPQ3

GDP GAPQ4

BUSINESS CYCLESQ2

VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION (VAR)Q3

COEFFICIENT OF CROSS CORRELATIONQ3

Abstract

This study reviews the effective factors of BUSINESS CYCLES in Iran's economy. The undertaken index for BUSINESS CYCLES in this study is GDP GAP (that is the difference between potential and actual GDP). Also, this research paper evaluated the effective factors on BUSINESS CYCLES by simultaneous equations with vector Auto regression (VAR) method. Besides, in order to recognize the causes of fluctuations in Iran's economy, the issue of co-movement of these variables with GDP GAP by use of index COEFFICIENT OF CROSS CORRELATION is included. One of the advantages of this study over the other studies is that it evaluates systemically and simultaneously effective model variables on GDP GAP and GDP GAP on model variables.The results of this study indicate that the effects of shocks from variables existing in the model such as inflation rate, liquidity growth rate, exchange rate and oil and gas revenue growth rate onto GDP GAP are positive. It shows the direct and positive effects of factors in making and extending BUSINESS CYCLES.Besides, the results of studying co-movement of variables existing in the model shows that all of the above-mentioned variables, apart from inflation rate, are leading variables in Iran's economy. Taking the results of this study into consideration, it is necessary for Iran's economy to ensure more economic stability and modification of fluctuations and to take these leading variables such as liquidity growth rate, exchange rate and oil and gas revenue growth rate seriously into account.

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APA: Copy

SHARIFAZADEH, M.R., & KAGHAZIAN, S.. (2008). THE EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVE FACTORS ON BUSINESS CYCLES IN IRAN'S ECONOMY. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ESSAYS, 5(9), 199-236. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/108971/en

Vancouver: Copy

SHARIFAZADEH M.R., KAGHAZIAN S.. THE EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVE FACTORS ON BUSINESS CYCLES IN IRAN'S ECONOMY. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ESSAYS[Internet]. 2008;5(9):199-236. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/108971/en

IEEE: Copy

M.R. SHARIFAZADEH, and S. KAGHAZIAN, “THE EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVE FACTORS ON BUSINESS CYCLES IN IRAN'S ECONOMY,” JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ESSAYS, vol. 5, no. 9, pp. 199–236, 2008, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/108971/en

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