ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFECTIVE FACTORS ON THE HOUSING PRICE BUBBLE (CASE STUDY: TEHRAN)

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NASR ESFAHANI REZA; SAFFARI BABAK; LATIFI MOHAMADREZA

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Journal: Journal of Economic Research Year:2017 | Volume:52 | Issue:1 Page(s): 163-186

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Information Journal Paper

Title

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFECTIVE FACTORS ON THE HOUSING PRICE BUBBLE (CASE STUDY: TEHRAN)

Author(s)

NASR ESFAHANI REZA | SAFFARI BABAK | LATIFI MOHAMADREZA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

FUNDAMENTAL VALUE OF HOUSE PRICEQ1

HOUSING PRICE BUBBLEQ1

HOUSING MARKET IN TEHRANQ2

AUOREGRESSIVE VARQ1

ARDLQ2

Abstract

The study has been done to identify the contribution of effective no nfundamental factors on the FUNDAMENTAL VALUE OF HOUSE PRICE and effective factor on HOUSING PRICE BUBBLE in Tehran city on Short term and long term and to determine the contribution of any economic factors in the HOUSING PRICE BUBBLE. To do these aims, were determined two economic models according to available theoretical literature, then Data were collected for each variable on the period 1371 to 1392. In the next steps, each of models estimated by using of econometrics methods such as VAR and ARDL, Using Eviews & Microfit. Estimating the dynamic model of the fundamental value and Model validation and unit root test on the residual component of model (bubble) indicated that explained changes by the explanatory variables is meaningful compared to not explained changes (errors) and the residual component is stationary and It can be accepted as HOUSING PRICE BUBBLE of Tehran city. About explanatory variables of the real - fundamental values of house price in Tehran also can be said that in the long term Number of households with the coefficient -1.112 is the most elastic variable and Loan-To-Value with the coefficient 0.0674 is the least elastic variable in fundamental price. Among the explanatory variables of HOUSING PRICE BUBBLE of Tehran, Country real liquidity with a lag with the coefficient of 0.26 was the most important variable and the lag of real interest rate with the coefficient of 0.0048 was the least important explanatory variables of HOUSING PRICE BUBBLE of Tehran city.

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APA: Copy

NASR ESFAHANI, REZA, SAFFARI, BABAK, & LATIFI, MOHAMADREZA. (2017). ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFECTIVE FACTORS ON THE HOUSING PRICE BUBBLE (CASE STUDY: TEHRAN). TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, 52(1 ), 163-186. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/11754/en

Vancouver: Copy

NASR ESFAHANI REZA, SAFFARI BABAK, LATIFI MOHAMADREZA. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFECTIVE FACTORS ON THE HOUSING PRICE BUBBLE (CASE STUDY: TEHRAN). TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI[Internet]. 2017;52(1 ):163-186. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/11754/en

IEEE: Copy

REZA NASR ESFAHANI, BABAK SAFFARI, and MOHAMADREZA LATIFI, “ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFECTIVE FACTORS ON THE HOUSING PRICE BUBBLE (CASE STUDY: TEHRAN),” TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, vol. 52, no. 1 , pp. 163–186, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/11754/en

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