The Effect of P Change in Opulation Age Structure on Government Budget Deficit

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NOFERESTI MOHAMMAD; VARAHRAMI VIDA; DASHTBAN FAROUJI SAHAR

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Journal: Journal of Economic Research Year:2018 | Volume:53 | Issue:3 Page(s): 725-753

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Information Journal Paper

Title

The Effect of P Change in Opulation Age Structure on Government Budget Deficit

Author(s)

NOFERESTI MOHAMMAD | VARAHRAMI VIDA | DASHTBAN FAROUJI SAHAR | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Mixed Frequency Data Sampling (MIDAS)Q1

age structure of the populationQ2

tax revenueQ1

government consumption expenditureQ2

budget deficitQ1

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to investigate the effect of changes in population age structure on the budget deficit and forecast its evolution using MIDAS method and time series data during the years 1367 until 1393. One of the criteria for assessing the economic strength of a country is to consider government revenues and expenditure and hence the budget balance. In this paper the effect of changing age structure on government budget deficits will be examined. To this end a relationship for tax revenues and a relationship for government consumption expenditure is stipulated. For this purpose, we have estimated the corresponding function using the relevant data in the period the first quarter of 1367 to the fourth quarter of 1392. The results show that age structure of population have positive and significant effects on government consumption expenditure and tax revenues and thus budget deficit. Next, we forecasted the consumption expenditure and the government tax revenues for 1393. The budget deficit forecasted by the model is 130063. 3 b. Rials for 1393 and compared to its real data which is 131016. 1 b. Rials, indicate that the model forecast is satisfactory.

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APA: Copy

NOFERESTI, MOHAMMAD, VARAHRAMI, VIDA, & DASHTBAN FAROUJI, SAHAR. (2018). The Effect of P Change in Opulation Age Structure on Government Budget Deficit. TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, 53(3 ), 725-753. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/11843/en

Vancouver: Copy

NOFERESTI MOHAMMAD, VARAHRAMI VIDA, DASHTBAN FAROUJI SAHAR. The Effect of P Change in Opulation Age Structure on Government Budget Deficit. TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI[Internet]. 2018;53(3 ):725-753. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/11843/en

IEEE: Copy

MOHAMMAD NOFERESTI, VIDA VARAHRAMI, and SAHAR DASHTBAN FAROUJI, “The Effect of P Change in Opulation Age Structure on Government Budget Deficit,” TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, vol. 53, no. 3 , pp. 725–753, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/11843/en

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