ESTIMATING THE CONTRIBUTION OF ICT SECTOR TO GDP OF IRAN BASED ON CURVE FITTING, ARIMA AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS METHODS

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MONTAZER GHOLAMALI; BAYAT ABOLGHASEM

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Journal: JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY Year:2016 | Volume:8 | Issue:1 Page(s): 1-13

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Title

ESTIMATING THE CONTRIBUTION OF ICT SECTOR TO GDP OF IRAN BASED ON CURVE FITTING, ARIMA AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS METHODS

Author(s)

MONTAZER GHOLAMALI | BAYAT ABOLGHASEM | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

ICT SHAREQ2

GDPQ1

IT POLICY-MAKINGQ2

ICT DEVELOPMENTQ2

INFORMATIONAL SOCIETYQ2

Abstract

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become a key driver of economic growth over the past decade. This industry also play a significant role in Iran's economy and has emphasized in 20-year's vision document and 5th national's development plan. The aim of this study is to estimate the contribution of ICT sector to GDP in Iran's 6th national development plan (2016-2020) using forecasting methods. So we have estimated Iran's GDP and ICT value added with polynomial curve fitting, ARIMA and neural networks models. The calculations showed that the contribution of ICT Sector to GDP will be 4.57, 6.2 and 3.7 percent with mentioned methods, respectively. The comparison of error characteristics showed that neural network method estimation had more performance relatively.

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APA: Copy

MONTAZER, GHOLAMALI, & BAYAT, ABOLGHASEM. (2016). ESTIMATING THE CONTRIBUTION OF ICT SECTOR TO GDP OF IRAN BASED ON CURVE FITTING, ARIMA AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS METHODS. JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY, 8(1), 1-13. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/133093/en

Vancouver: Copy

MONTAZER GHOLAMALI, BAYAT ABOLGHASEM. ESTIMATING THE CONTRIBUTION OF ICT SECTOR TO GDP OF IRAN BASED ON CURVE FITTING, ARIMA AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS METHODS. JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY[Internet]. 2016;8(1):1-13. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/133093/en

IEEE: Copy

GHOLAMALI MONTAZER, and ABOLGHASEM BAYAT, “ESTIMATING THE CONTRIBUTION OF ICT SECTOR TO GDP OF IRAN BASED ON CURVE FITTING, ARIMA AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS METHODS,” JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 1–13, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/133093/en

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