Futurology of Media Research in Provincial Centers

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Darabi Alireza; Darabi Masoumeh

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: Rasaneh Year:2024 | Volume: | Issue: Page(s): 103-129

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Futurology of Media Research in Provincial Centers

Author(s)

Darabi Alireza | Darabi Masoumeh | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Futurology of the mediaQ4

future trends of provincial mediaQ4

future media scenarios of provincial centersQ4

audience orientation of mediaQ4

local functioning of mediaQ4

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to identify possible futures for provincial media in a ten-year time horizon. This is a qualitative research, which uses the Delphi method applying theme analysis to study the data obtained from open questionnaires and interviews. Also futurology and Schwartz's method were used in scenario writing to portray the future. The statistical community includes 26 national and provincial media experts, futurology professors, and former and current managers of provincial radio and television stations, who were selected through purposeful sampling and snowball method. The results of the research showed that the trends of radio and television in the centers of the provinces are: media competition, the growth of social media, new business models, the importance of the audience in the media, the improvement of the quality of the programs and the local operation of the media; According to the scores of the ‘importance’ and ‘uncertainty’ matrix, the two main drivers of concentration versus decentralization of decision-making and independence or participation of the media were chosen to identify the scenarios and portray the future. Also based on the experts' scores, the priority of the scenarios and their corresponding future were determined: Making the media (paying attention to local culture and coverage), audience-oriented media, moving towards social media (maximum activity in the virtual space), convergence of media, emphasis on programming and improving the quality of the program; Emphasis on the continuation of the current trend of the centers and the presence of the media in the virtual space, the authority of the provincial media and their survival. The possible futures, in order of importance, include media audience orientation, media participation and cooperation, development of activity and maintaining authority.

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