MODELING AND PREDICTION OF MONTHLY MAX & MINTEMPERATURES OFMASHHAD PLAIN USING TIME SERIES MODELS

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SHABANI B.; MOUSAVI BAYGI M.; JABARI NOGHABI M.; GHAREMAN B.

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Journal: Journal of Water and Soil Year:2013 | Volume:27 | Issue:5 Page(s): 896-906

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Title

MODELING AND PREDICTION OF MONTHLY MAX & MINTEMPERATURES OFMASHHAD PLAIN USING TIME SERIES MODELS

Author(s)

SHABANI B. | MOUSAVI BAYGI M. | JABARI NOGHABI M. | GHAREMAN B. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

MAXIMUM MONTHLY TEMPERATUREQ2

MINIMUM MONTHLY TEMPERATUREQ2

TIME SERIESQ2

MODELINGQ2

PREDICTIONQ2

Abstract

Nowadays, MODELING and PREDICTION of climatic parameters due to climate change, global warming and the recent droughts is inevitable. Maximum and minimum temperatures are including climatic parameters that are important in water resources management and agriculture. In order to model the maximum and MINIMUM MONTHLY TEMPERATUREs of Mashhad plain, the long- term data of Mashhad and Golmakan were used for the joint period from 1987 to 2008. The SARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model for MAXIMUM MONTHLY TEMPERATURE and the SARIMA(0,0,0)(2,1,1)12 model for MINIMUM MONTHLY TEMPERATURE were determined as the final models using TIME SERIES. High correlation coefficientsindicate acceptable adaptation of MODELING and actual values in the calibration and validation of models. Finlay, PREDICTIONs were performed based on models fitted for the next 10 years (2009-2018). Comparison of results for future period (2009-2018) and the base period (1987-2008) represents maximum temperature mean 1oc increase and minimum temperature mean 1.4ocincrease.

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APA: Copy

SHABANI, B., MOUSAVI BAYGI, M., JABARI NOGHABI, M., & GHAREMAN, B.. (2013). MODELING AND PREDICTION OF MONTHLY MAX & MINTEMPERATURES OFMASHHAD PLAIN USING TIME SERIES MODELS. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), 27(5), 896-906. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/141215/en

Vancouver: Copy

SHABANI B., MOUSAVI BAYGI M., JABARI NOGHABI M., GHAREMAN B.. MODELING AND PREDICTION OF MONTHLY MAX & MINTEMPERATURES OFMASHHAD PLAIN USING TIME SERIES MODELS. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY)[Internet]. 2013;27(5):896-906. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/141215/en

IEEE: Copy

B. SHABANI, M. MOUSAVI BAYGI, M. JABARI NOGHABI, and B. GHAREMAN, “MODELING AND PREDICTION OF MONTHLY MAX & MINTEMPERATURES OFMASHHAD PLAIN USING TIME SERIES MODELS,” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), vol. 27, no. 5, pp. 896–906, 2013, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/141215/en

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