PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) IN FORECASTING PRECIPITATION IN TWO ARID AND HYPER ARID REGIONS

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REZAEI M.; NOHTANI M.; MOGHADDAMNIA A.; ABKAR A.; REZAEI MASOUMEH

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Journal: Journal of Water and Soil Year:2014 | Volume:28 | Issue:4 Page(s): 836-845

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Title

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) IN FORECASTING PRECIPITATION IN TWO ARID AND HYPER ARID REGIONS

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Keywords

PRECIPITATIONQ2

BAMQ2

CLIMATE CHANGEQ2

KERMANQ2

SDSM MODELQ2

Abstract

One of the most important problems in the management and planning of water resources is to forecast longterm PRECIPITATION in arid region and hyper arid regions. In this study, statistical downscaling model (SDSM) isused for study of CLIMATE CHANGE effects on PRECIPITATION. The data used as input to the Model are daily PRECIPITATION of KERMAN and BAM synoptic stations, NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) data and the A2 and B2 emission scenarios HadCM3 for the reference period (1971-2001). Using HadCM3 A2, B2data the PRECIPITATION for three period (2010-2039), (2040-2069) and (2070-2099) are predicted and compared with the reference period. We used the first 15 years data (1971-1985) for the calibration and the second 15 years data (1986-2001) for model validation. After the examination function Indexes results from SDSM MODEL shown that this model has better accuracy and a high ability to predict PRECIPITATION in arid region than hyper aridregion. Results indicated that until 2099, amount of annual PRECIPITATION under A2 and B2 emission scenario will be decreased by 1.3 and 0.3 mm in KERMAN synoptic station and will be increased by 4.56 and 5.46 mm in BAMsynoptic station, relative to reference period i.e.1971-2001, respectively.

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APA: Copy

REZAEI, M., NOHTANI, M., MOGHADDAMNIA, A., ABKAR, A., & REZAEI, MASOUMEH. (2014). PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) IN FORECASTING PRECIPITATION IN TWO ARID AND HYPER ARID REGIONS. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), 28(4), 836-845. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/141235/en

Vancouver: Copy

REZAEI M., NOHTANI M., MOGHADDAMNIA A., ABKAR A., REZAEI MASOUMEH. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) IN FORECASTING PRECIPITATION IN TWO ARID AND HYPER ARID REGIONS. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY)[Internet]. 2014;28(4):836-845. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/141235/en

IEEE: Copy

M. REZAEI, M. NOHTANI, A. MOGHADDAMNIA, A. ABKAR, and MASOUMEH REZAEI, “PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) IN FORECASTING PRECIPITATION IN TWO ARID AND HYPER ARID REGIONS,” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 836–845, 2014, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/141235/en

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