Application of Monte Carlo simulation in evaluating agricultural production risk (Case study: Gorgan county)

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ESHRAGHI FARSHID; Kheiri Narges; Hasanpour Ebrahim

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research Year:2015 | Volume:46 | Issue:2 Page(s): 375-383

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Title

Application of Monte Carlo simulation in evaluating agricultural production risk (Case study: Gorgan county)

Author(s)

ESHRAGHI FARSHID | Kheiri Narges | Hasanpour Ebrahim | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

agriculture productionsQ2

MonteQ1

Abstract

Agriculture sector has had a significant grow thing role in the Iran, but growth and development in this sector is not possible without a suitable risk management. This study has tried to predict and measure the risk from changing weather condition on agriculture products of Gorgan County using Mont Carlo Stimulation as one of the powerful tools on risk analysis. The results showed that the highest level of production risk is for the crop such as barley, soya and wheat and the least level of the risk is for the crops such as bean, clover and pea, respectively. To sum up, the research results indicated a significant effect of production risk in this area and therefore managers and policy makers need to notice it.

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APA: Copy

ESHRAGHI, FARSHID, Kheiri, Narges, & Hasanpour, Ebrahim. (2015). Application of Monte Carlo simulation in evaluating agricultural production risk (Case study: Gorgan county). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICUTURAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, 46(2 ), 375-383. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/146341/en

Vancouver: Copy

ESHRAGHI FARSHID, Kheiri Narges, Hasanpour Ebrahim. Application of Monte Carlo simulation in evaluating agricultural production risk (Case study: Gorgan county). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICUTURAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH[Internet]. 2015;46(2 ):375-383. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/146341/en

IEEE: Copy

FARSHID ESHRAGHI, Narges Kheiri, and Ebrahim Hasanpour, “Application of Monte Carlo simulation in evaluating agricultural production risk (Case study: Gorgan county),” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICUTURAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, vol. 46, no. 2 , pp. 375–383, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/146341/en

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