MODELING AND PREDICTION OF BREAD WASTE USING TIME SERIES MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS (ANN)

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JALERAJABI MITRA; SHAHNOUSHI NASER; DANESHVAR MAHMOUD; FIROOZZARE ALI; DEHGHANIYAN SIAVASH; RAZAVI SEYED MOHAMMAD ALI

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research Year:2011 | Volume:42-2 | Issue:2 Page(s): 163-173

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Title

MODELING AND PREDICTION OF BREAD WASTE USING TIME SERIES MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS (ANN)

Author(s)

Keywords

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKQ2

BREAD WASTEQ2

IRANQ3

ARDL MODELQ3

Abstract

This paper presents the application of multivariate time series model (ARDL) to investigate factors affecting BREAD WASTE and to explore the relationships among shortrun, longrun and error correction coefficient and the independent variables over the period 1978-2006. Results reveal that Gross National Product and urbanization have positive effects on BREAD WASTE in the long term, while the bread price and Gini coefficient have negative effects on BREAD WASTE in short term. To predict the amount of BREAD WASTE, ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN) and ARDL MODEL were applied. Comparison of the two models indicated that the ANN-ARDL multi-layer perceptron model (3 layers) with a hyperbolic tangent transfer function for the hidden layer and a delta-bar-delta learning algorithm, is the best model for forecasting the amount of BREAD WASTE. This amount will exceed 3.181 million tons in 2011. This implies that considering the wheat price in 2006, USD 1145 million will be removed from the national economic cycle.

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APA: Copy

JALERAJABI, MITRA, SHAHNOUSHI, NASER, DANESHVAR, MAHMOUD, FIROOZZARE, ALI, DEHGHANIYAN, SIAVASH, & RAZAVI, SEYED MOHAMMAD ALI. (2011). MODELING AND PREDICTION OF BREAD WASTE USING TIME SERIES MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS (ANN). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICUTURAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, 42-2(2), 163-173. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/146510/en

Vancouver: Copy

JALERAJABI MITRA, SHAHNOUSHI NASER, DANESHVAR MAHMOUD, FIROOZZARE ALI, DEHGHANIYAN SIAVASH, RAZAVI SEYED MOHAMMAD ALI. MODELING AND PREDICTION OF BREAD WASTE USING TIME SERIES MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS (ANN). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICUTURAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH[Internet]. 2011;42-2(2):163-173. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/146510/en

IEEE: Copy

MITRA JALERAJABI, NASER SHAHNOUSHI, MAHMOUD DANESHVAR, ALI FIROOZZARE, SIAVASH DEHGHANIYAN, and SEYED MOHAMMAD ALI RAZAVI, “MODELING AND PREDICTION OF BREAD WASTE USING TIME SERIES MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS (ANN),” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICUTURAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, vol. 42-2, no. 2, pp. 163–173, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/146510/en

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