CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WHEAT YIELD AND ANALYSIS OF THE RELATED RISKS: (CASE STUDY: ESFAHAN RUDDASHT REGION)

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ABABAEI B.; SOHRABI T.; MIRZAEI F.; REZAVERDINEJAD V.; KARIMI B.

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Journal: WATER AND SOIL SCIENCE (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE) Year:2010 | Volume:20.1 | Issue:3 Page(s): 135-150

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Title

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WHEAT YIELD AND ANALYSIS OF THE RELATED RISKS: (CASE STUDY: ESFAHAN RUDDASHT REGION)

Author(s)

Keywords

CLIMATE CHANGEQ2

ESFAHAN RUDDASHTQ2

HADCM3Q4

LARS-WGQ2

SWAPQ4

WHEATQ4

Abstract

Change in atmospheric greenhouse gases Leads to imbalance between different elements of the earth climate. However, the amount of the gases that will be disposed in to the atmosphere in the future by human activity is uncertain and may be presented under different scenarios. In this study, the daily time series of climatic parameters for Ruddasht region (located in Esfahan Province, Iran) under A2 (857 ppm CO2., 308oC temperature rise) and B1 (538 ppm CO2., 2oC temperature rise) CLIMATE CHANGE scenarios were generated for the period 2011-2030 using HADCM3 Global Circulation Model (GCM) and LARS-WG weather generator. The results showed that, in the region of study, the amount of mean total yearly precipitation, mean total effective precipitation and mean daily temperature would increase under CLIMATE CHANGE scenarios. The effects of CLIMATE CHANGE on irrigated WHEAT yield were analyzed using SWAP model. The analysis of relative and actual yield of WHEAT under different climatic scenarios showed that the mean relative yield under scenarios A2 and B1 would decrease by 1.49 and 2.1 percent and the mean actual yield would decrease by 4.19 and 17.9 percent, respectively. Analyzing related risks of yield decrease demonstrated that the risk of yield reduction would increase in CLIMATE CHANGE scenarios. The risk of 500 kg.ha-1 WHEAT yield reduction in comparison with base scenario (BS) mean value were estimated 7, 15 and 55 percent for BS, A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively.

Cites

EVALUATION OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE CROP YIELDS AND PROPOSING THE CHANGING CROPPING PATTERN STRATEGY (CASE STUDY: SIMINEH ROOD BASIN)

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APA: Copy

ABABAEI, B., SOHRABI, T., MIRZAEI, F., REZAVERDINEJAD, V., & KARIMI, B.. (2010). CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WHEAT YIELD AND ANALYSIS OF THE RELATED RISKS: (CASE STUDY: ESFAHAN RUDDASHT REGION). WATER AND SOIL SCIENCE (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE), 20.1(3), 135-150. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/147836/en

Vancouver: Copy

ABABAEI B., SOHRABI T., MIRZAEI F., REZAVERDINEJAD V., KARIMI B.. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WHEAT YIELD AND ANALYSIS OF THE RELATED RISKS: (CASE STUDY: ESFAHAN RUDDASHT REGION). WATER AND SOIL SCIENCE (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE)[Internet]. 2010;20.1(3):135-150. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/147836/en

IEEE: Copy

B. ABABAEI, T. SOHRABI, F. MIRZAEI, V. REZAVERDINEJAD, and B. KARIMI, “CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WHEAT YIELD AND ANALYSIS OF THE RELATED RISKS: (CASE STUDY: ESFAHAN RUDDASHT REGION),” WATER AND SOIL SCIENCE (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE), vol. 20.1, no. 3, pp. 135–150, 2010, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/147836/en

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