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Information Journal Paper

Title

APPLICATION OF COMBINED AR-ARCH MODEL IN FORECASTING URMIA LAKE WATER LEVEL

Pages

  175-186

Abstract

 One of the applicable methods for simulating and forecasting hydrological data is TIME SERIES modeling approach. One of the main problems with applying TIME SERIES modeling is generating stochastic series, since the generated data will be changed with changing the random series. In this research, after initial investigations on annual water level data of the Urmia lake, linear TIME SERIES models were fitted to the data and the ARMA (3, 0) model was selected as the best model among the ARMA series. Then, the TIME SERIES residual of ARMA (3) model were fitted using non-linear ARCH (1) models, and a combined AR-ARCH model was obtained. The results showed that the combined model had more accuracy than ARMA (3, 0) model. With combining the two mentioned models, values of the model validation accuracy (R2 coefficient) and error of model (Root mean square error) were improved 8.8% and 33%, respectively. Predicting results of Urmia lake water level showed that a climatic opportunity would be existed in the direction of Urmia Lake restoration.

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    APA: Copy

    ABBASZADEH AFSHAR, M., KHALILI, K., & BEHMANESH, J.. (2015). APPLICATION OF COMBINED AR-ARCH MODEL IN FORECASTING URMIA LAKE WATER LEVEL. WATER AND SOIL SCIENCE (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE), 25(4/2), 175-186. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/147844/en

    Vancouver: Copy

    ABBASZADEH AFSHAR M., KHALILI K., BEHMANESH J.. APPLICATION OF COMBINED AR-ARCH MODEL IN FORECASTING URMIA LAKE WATER LEVEL. WATER AND SOIL SCIENCE (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE)[Internet]. 2015;25(4/2):175-186. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/147844/en

    IEEE: Copy

    M. ABBASZADEH AFSHAR, K. KHALILI, and J. BEHMANESH, “APPLICATION OF COMBINED AR-ARCH MODEL IN FORECASTING URMIA LAKE WATER LEVEL,” WATER AND SOIL SCIENCE (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE), vol. 25, no. 4/2, pp. 175–186, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/147844/en

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