ASSESSMENT OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY OF MODFLOW MODEL USING GLUE METHOD (CASE STUDY: BIRJAND PLAIN)

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HAMRAZ B.S.; AKBARPOUR A.; POURREZA BILONDI M.

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Journal: Journal of Water and Soil Conservation Year:2016 | Volume:22 | Issue:6 Page(s): 61-79

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Title

ASSESSMENT OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY OF MODFLOW MODEL USING GLUE METHOD (CASE STUDY: BIRJAND PLAIN)

Author(s)

HAMRAZ B.S. | AKBARPOUR A. | POURREZA BILONDI M. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

UNCERTAINTYQ1

GROUNDWATER FLOWQ2

BIRJAND PLAINQ2

MODFLOW MODELQ2

GLUEQ1

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Groundwater modeling often is associated with UNCERTAINTY caused by incomplete knowledge of the underlying system or UNCERTAINTY due to natural variability in system processes and field conditions. UNCERTAINTY in groundwater modeling has been evaluated in three main sources as parameter UNCERTAINTY, conceptual UNCERTAINTY and input UNCERTAINTY. So far, there are few studies for assessing groundwater UNCERTAINTY in the country and quantifying UNCERTAINTY has been limited to statistical methods. Due to the importance of the water resources in the country and the necessity of estimating the UNCERTAINTY in order to achieve reliable results, in this study, parameter UNCERTAINTY of an arid region’s GROUNDWATER FLOW model was assessed by using a Monte Carlo-based simulation technique.Materials and Methods: First, conceptual groundwater model of BIRJAND PLAIN, located in the southern province, was developed based on collecting all available data, including topography, observed and withdrawal wells information, recharge information, hydrodynamic properties, surface elevation data. Then, the MATLAB -based MODFLOW MODEL was used to simulate the GROUNDWATER FLOW. After initial calibration in steady state, for assessing parameter UNCERTAINTY in transient mode two scenarios were defined. UNCERTAINTY analysis in the first scenario was performed by assuming the hydraulic conductivity as one of the major contributors to the model UNCERTAINTY. So the aquifer was divided into 17 homogenized zones according to initial calibration results and the parameter UNCERTAINTY was assessed using GLUE. In the second scenario, nine recharge zones were additionally considered as second parameters and their influence on hydraulic conductivity and total UNCERTAINTY were estimated by GLUE.Results: Posterior parameter plots of hydraulic conductivity in 17 homogeneous regions and recharge in nine inflow pathways and also, 95% confidence intervals for the simulated water table depth, were obtained as main results. The indices, as criteria for the comparison, were used to quantify the goodness of UNCERTAINTY performance and the sensitive regions were specified by implementing global sensitivity analysis of the model.Conclusion: Results indicate up to 86% of observed data bounded in the 95% confidence intervals that is emphatic the performance of the GLUE and the likelihood function in the assessment of parameter UNCERTAINTY in groundwater simulation model.

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APA: Copy

HAMRAZ, B.S., AKBARPOUR, A., & POURREZA BILONDI, M.. (2016). ASSESSMENT OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY OF MODFLOW MODEL USING GLUE METHOD (CASE STUDY: BIRJAND PLAIN). JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), 22(6), 61-79. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/156365/en

Vancouver: Copy

HAMRAZ B.S., AKBARPOUR A., POURREZA BILONDI M.. ASSESSMENT OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY OF MODFLOW MODEL USING GLUE METHOD (CASE STUDY: BIRJAND PLAIN). JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES)[Internet]. 2016;22(6):61-79. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/156365/en

IEEE: Copy

B.S. HAMRAZ, A. AKBARPOUR, and M. POURREZA BILONDI, “ASSESSMENT OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY OF MODFLOW MODEL USING GLUE METHOD (CASE STUDY: BIRJAND PLAIN),” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), vol. 22, no. 6, pp. 61–79, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/156365/en

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