Modeling the Price Flactuations in the Supply Chain of Poultry Meat: A System Dynamics approach

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HEYDARI JAFAR; ZAREAYAN MAZRAE KHOSRO RAHMAN; HEYDARI ELHAM; Hezarkhani Bita; KARIMI ROYA

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Journal: JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH Year:2019 | Volume:11 | Issue:2 (42) Page(s): 237-262

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Title

Modeling the Price Flactuations in the Supply Chain of Poultry Meat: A System Dynamics approach

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Keywords

Supply Chain of Poultry MeatQ1

Poultry Price FluctuationsQ1

Basic CommodityQ1

System DynamicsQ1

Price PredictionQ2

Abstract

Poultry Meat is known as a Basic Commodity widely used by Iranian people. Investigating previous researches regarding analysis of poultry-meat prices, it is obtained that the presented models only predict and determine the prices based on independent variables and they had ignored the existing feedbacks affecting the price fluctuations. Previous researches are only able to predict the general trend with annual time units, while the most important factors that cause the fluctuations are the basic feedbacks especially supply and demand feedbacks. Furthermore, short term fluctuations such as monthly intervals are very important which are ignored. In this paper, by applying system dynamic methodology, the structure of poultry market and fluctuations mechanism in the prices are identified. In the presented model, the interaction between feedbacks of demand, domestic supply, import and production costs are considered. The results indicate that the main fluctuation is related to the approach to Nowruz holidays, which is Caused a significant price increase. According to the findings of the study, the increase in imports does not have much effect on pricing.

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APA: Copy

HEYDARI, JAFAR, ZAREAYAN MAZRAE KHOSRO, RAHMAN, HEYDARI, ELHAM, Hezarkhani, Bita, & KARIMI, ROYA. (2019). Modeling the Price Flactuations in the Supply Chain of Poultry Meat: A System Dynamics approach. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH, 11(2 (42) ), 237-262. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/158623/en

Vancouver: Copy

HEYDARI JAFAR, ZAREAYAN MAZRAE KHOSRO RAHMAN, HEYDARI ELHAM, Hezarkhani Bita, KARIMI ROYA. Modeling the Price Flactuations in the Supply Chain of Poultry Meat: A System Dynamics approach. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;11(2 (42) ):237-262. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/158623/en

IEEE: Copy

JAFAR HEYDARI, RAHMAN ZAREAYAN MAZRAE KHOSRO, ELHAM HEYDARI, Bita Hezarkhani, and ROYA KARIMI, “Modeling the Price Flactuations in the Supply Chain of Poultry Meat: A System Dynamics approach,” JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH, vol. 11, no. 2 (42) , pp. 237–262, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/158623/en

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