SENSITIVITY OF THE STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) TO REANALYSIS DATA IN ARID AREAS

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ABKAR A.; HABIBNAJAD M.

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Journal: Journal of Arid Biome Year:2015 | Volume:4 | Issue:2 Page(s): 11-26

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Title

SENSITIVITY OF THE STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) TO REANALYSIS DATA IN ARID AREAS

Author(s)

ABKAR A. | HABIBNAJAD M. | | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CLIMATE CHANGEQ1

DOWNSCALINGQ2

GCMS MODELQ1

REANALYSIS DATAQ2

SDSM MODELQ1

SENSITIVITYQ1

Abstract

General circulation models (GCMS) are only tools to predict future climate condition under CLIMATE CHANGE scenarios. An outstanding issue with the use of GCM output for regional and local application is the coarse spatial resolution. So there are various methods to predict, climate variables at regional, local and a station scale that all these methods are known DOWNSCALING. The Statistical DOWNSCALING Model (SDSM) is one of the most used methods that identifies relationships between variable predictors (output GCM) and variable predictands (Temperature, precipitation, etc. in particular station) using multiple linear regression. Intergovernmental Panel on CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) has determined two periods (1961-1990) and (1971-2000) as baseline to compare the effects of CLIMATE CHANGE in future periods. As well as REANALYSIS DATA, that produced by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are important components for the structuring of the SDSM as they supply the predictor values for the calibration and validation of the model. Type and period of REANALYSIS DATA can be effective in model accuracy. In this study for DOWNSCALING temperature and precipitation variables the SENSITIVITY of the SDSM MODEL was examined to type and reanalysis dada of NCEP in Kerman meteorological station. The mean absolute error (MAE) was used to determine the SENSITIVITY of the model. Result showed that the model is SENSITIVITY to both type and base period REANALYSIS DATA. The mean absolute error of the reanalysis CGCM model data, for the average maximum, minimum and mean temperature variables equal to 11, 4.5 and 4.7 times the case that theHadCM3 model data is used respectively. In the case of the base period, when data of (1961-1990) is used, MAE for the mentioned variables and daily precipitation equal to 3.5, 1.4, 3.5 and 1.4 times that the state which is used for the base period (2000-1970), respectively.

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APA: Copy

ABKAR, A., & HABIBNAJAD, M.. (2015). SENSITIVITY OF THE STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) TO REANALYSIS DATA IN ARID AREAS. ARID BIOM SCIENTIFIC AND RESEARCH JOURNAL, 4(2 ), 11-26. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/199785/en

Vancouver: Copy

ABKAR A., HABIBNAJAD M.. SENSITIVITY OF THE STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) TO REANALYSIS DATA IN ARID AREAS. ARID BIOM SCIENTIFIC AND RESEARCH JOURNAL[Internet]. 2015;4(2 ):11-26. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/199785/en

IEEE: Copy

A. ABKAR, and M. HABIBNAJAD, “SENSITIVITY OF THE STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) TO REANALYSIS DATA IN ARID AREAS,” ARID BIOM SCIENTIFIC AND RESEARCH JOURNAL, vol. 4, no. 2 , pp. 11–26, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/199785/en

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