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Information Journal Paper

Title

STREAMFLOW FORECASTING USING CLIMATIC SIGNALS IN OROMIEH LAKE BASIN

Pages

  41-51

Abstract

 Stream flow is one of the main components of water resource. Therefore STREAM FLOW FORECASTING is very important especially in DROUGHT years. Impact of climatic signals on STREAM FLOW to forecast the amount of flow in lead time is a new subject in international research center. In order to investigate this subject LAKE OROMIEH basin was selected. From many hydrometric stations in the basin, 9 stations that have long term data selected. A method has been devised to incorporate SOl, PDO and NAO, to forecast the spring STREAM FLOW, one year in advance. Spring season river flow FORECASTING is very important, since major portion of annual flow occurs in spring. The method could be used by water planners in better planning and management of available water resources. To accomplish this task, first impacts of the climatic signals on STREAM FLOW in Oromieh Lake basin was investigated. There are many hydrometric stations, of which nine with long term data were selected. From numerous CLIMATIC INDICES that were studied in this research six were selected based on statistical tests. These indices include SOI, PDO, PNA, NAO, NINO3, 4 and NOI. In order to determine the impact of climatic signals on STREAM FLOW, several time steps including monthly, seasonal and annual were explored. The results show that seasonal time steps have higher impacts than annual or monthly ones. Furthermore, some of the negative and positive phases of seasonal indices indicate higher correlation with STREAM FLOW. However, real significant relations are not revealed until the joint effect of some indices is studied together. This is done through a method that takes one index (in either phase) and observes the behavior of the STREAM FLOW by instances of the other index for the cases were the conditions of the first index are fulfilled. A remarkable progress in terms of correlation coefficient is observed when this method is employed. This research shows negative SOI, positive PDO and NAO indices have higher correlation with spring STREAM FLOW than other indices. Evaluation of FORECASTING values show positive PDO indices is good predictor for Spring STREAM FLOW in this basin.

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    APA: Copy

    FATEHI, A., BORHANI DARIAN, A.R., & MAHDIAN, M.H.. (2006). STREAMFLOW FORECASTING USING CLIMATIC SIGNALS IN OROMIEH LAKE BASIN. PAJOUHESH-VA-SAZANDEGI, 19(2 (71 IN NATURAL RESOURCES)), 41-51. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/20040/en

    Vancouver: Copy

    FATEHI A., BORHANI DARIAN A.R., MAHDIAN M.H.. STREAMFLOW FORECASTING USING CLIMATIC SIGNALS IN OROMIEH LAKE BASIN. PAJOUHESH-VA-SAZANDEGI[Internet]. 2006;19(2 (71 IN NATURAL RESOURCES)):41-51. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/20040/en

    IEEE: Copy

    A. FATEHI, A.R. BORHANI DARIAN, and M.H. MAHDIAN, “STREAMFLOW FORECASTING USING CLIMATIC SIGNALS IN OROMIEH LAKE BASIN,” PAJOUHESH-VA-SAZANDEGI, vol. 19, no. 2 (71 IN NATURAL RESOURCES), pp. 41–51, 2006, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/20040/en

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