The Effect of Demographic Changes on Financial Stability of Social Security Organization with Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

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Pakravan Bayram; KHOSHNEVIS MARYAM

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Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS Year:2019 | Volume:8 | Issue:27 Page(s): 35-48

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Title

The Effect of Demographic Changes on Financial Stability of Social Security Organization with Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

Author(s)

Pakravan Bayram | KHOSHNEVIS MARYAM | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

demographic changesQ1

financial sustainability of the social security organizationQ1

Auto regressive Distributed Lag )ARDL(Q2

Abstract

The phenomenon of population decline and its aging not only affects economic variables, but also leads to increased spending and financial instability in retirement funds. Hence, the present study investigates the impact of demographic changes on the financial sustainability index of Iran's Social Security Organization. To achieve the research goals, the statistical information related to the research variables during the period 1980-2017 collected from the United Nations and the Social Security Organization of Iran websites. Then, the research model was estimated using Auto regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric method. The research findings show that population size and organizational support ratio index have a positive effect on the financial sustainability of the organization in the short and long term. Also, the effects of life expectancy and population dependency on the financial sustainability index of the organization in the short and long term are negative. This study, on the one hand, pursues the policies of population growth in the country by the relevant institutions and, on the other hand, proposes parametric and systematic reforms in the Social Security Pension Fund as a strategy for financial sustainability in the terms of aging population phenomenon.

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APA: Copy

Pakravan, Bayram, & KHOSHNEVIS, MARYAM. (2019). The Effect of Demographic Changes on Financial Stability of Social Security Organization with Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS, 8(27 ), 35-48. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/202028/en

Vancouver: Copy

Pakravan Bayram, KHOSHNEVIS MARYAM. The Effect of Demographic Changes on Financial Stability of Social Security Organization with Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS[Internet]. 2019;8(27 ):35-48. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/202028/en

IEEE: Copy

Bayram Pakravan, and MARYAM KHOSHNEVIS, “The Effect of Demographic Changes on Financial Stability of Social Security Organization with Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS, vol. 8, no. 27 , pp. 35–48, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/202028/en

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