Analysis of the behavioral pattern of climate scenarios and its impact on the Caspian sea level changes

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saberi Louyeh fardin; ALIJANI BOHLOL; KHALEDI SHAHRIAR

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Journal: JOURNAL OF CLIMATE RESEARCH Year:2019 | Volume:9 | Issue:36 Page(s): 13-30

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Analysis of the behavioral pattern of climate scenarios and its impact on the Caspian sea level changes

Author(s)

saberi Louyeh fardin | ALIJANI BOHLOL | KHALEDI SHAHRIAR | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Sea level riseQ1

Caspian basinQ2

Emission scenariosQ1

Extreme eventQ1

Coefficient of variationQ1

Abstract

The present research, through applying precipitation and temperature Extreme events, illustrates that percent of forecasted precipitation and temperature changes in comparison with the average base period of 1981-2010, in 2030, 2060, 2100 will increase procedurally. Spatial variability, and annual Coefficient of variation in various regions are different. north, western north, eastern north and east will include the least temperature fluctuations, and the highest percent of precipitation with the highest Coefficient of variation which conveys chronological period precipitation distribution with disordered accumulation and more local difference in this region in comparison with other regions. Then, Ghafghaz mountainous region has the highest percent of precipitation rise with suitable scattering in a year. The southern region of Caspian sea will experience the most rise of temperature and lowest percent of precipitation rise. High Coefficient of variation in this area illustrates abnormal and disordered pattern on the threshold of precipitation. Sea level rise with three estimation regression, low average, high, on the basis of sea level ascending pattern equation For both scenarios, fluctuations in sea level based on subsidence Caspian pit seabed was calculated. In general, average annual sea level is increasing which is about 1. 22 cm each year for scenario RCP8. 5, and 0. 93 cm yearly for scenario RCP4. 5. Through this article, it can be found that changes in coastal region is unavoidable. However, inhabitants in this region have no system or not yet developed which can help them to adopt themselves with climate change issue. This study illustrated the significant effect of coastal climate which through climate change how society and economical activities are influenced.

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APA: Copy

saberi Louyeh, fardin, ALIJANI, BOHLOL, & KHALEDI, SHAHRIAR. (2019). Analysis of the behavioral pattern of climate scenarios and its impact on the Caspian sea level changes. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE RESEARCH, 9(36 ), 13-30. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/213101/en

Vancouver: Copy

saberi Louyeh fardin, ALIJANI BOHLOL, KHALEDI SHAHRIAR. Analysis of the behavioral pattern of climate scenarios and its impact on the Caspian sea level changes. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;9(36 ):13-30. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/213101/en

IEEE: Copy

fardin saberi Louyeh, BOHLOL ALIJANI, and SHAHRIAR KHALEDI, “Analysis of the behavioral pattern of climate scenarios and its impact on the Caspian sea level changes,” JOURNAL OF CLIMATE RESEARCH, vol. 9, no. 36 , pp. 13–30, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/213101/en

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