AN INVESTIGATION OF STRUCTURAL SHOCKS ON MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN IRAN

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ARABMAZAR ABBAS; GOLMORADI HASSAN

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Journal: JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MODELING (JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS) Year:2010 | Volume:1 | Issue:1 Page(s): 41-80

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Title

AN INVESTIGATION OF STRUCTURAL SHOCKS ON MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN IRAN

Author(s)

ARABMAZAR ABBAS | GOLMORADI HASSAN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

BUSINESS CYCLESQ1

STRUCTURAL SHOCKSQ2

AUTO REGRESSIONQ2

IRAN'S ECONOMIC STRUCTUREQ3

Abstract

Excessive fluctuations in economic growth as well as inflation, increase economic risks, as a result of which the level of investment, production, and social welfare are decreased. Modem economic theories attribute fluctuations in macroeconomic to STRUCTURAL SHOCKS and internal economic reaction to these shocks. The present paper examines the relative significance of STRUCTURAL SHOCKS in elucidation of fluctuations in macroeconomic variables using the structural auto-regression method. By using a macroeconomic model, the identified STRUCTURAL SHOCKS are as follows: real oil income shock, supply side shock, trade balance shock, real demand shock, and monetary shock.The results of the study show that supply side and oil income shocks are the main sources of economic growth fluctuations. Although positive oil income shock increases GDP growth at a low rate in the short run, it cannot guarantee long - run stable economic growth. Positive monetary shock (Monetary policy) has a positive impact on production on the short run, which turns out to be negative in the long run. All in all, the results of this study indicate that although demand management policies (monetary and fiscal policies) play an important role in stabilizing inflation, their effect on stabilization of economic growth is limited.

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APA: Copy

ARABMAZAR, ABBAS, & GOLMORADI, HASSAN. (2010). AN INVESTIGATION OF STRUCTURAL SHOCKS ON MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN IRAN. JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MODELING (JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS), 1(1), 41-80. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/216485/en

Vancouver: Copy

ARABMAZAR ABBAS, GOLMORADI HASSAN. AN INVESTIGATION OF STRUCTURAL SHOCKS ON MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN IRAN. JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MODELING (JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS)[Internet]. 2010;1(1):41-80. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/216485/en

IEEE: Copy

ABBAS ARABMAZAR, and HASSAN GOLMORADI, “AN INVESTIGATION OF STRUCTURAL SHOCKS ON MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN IRAN,” JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MODELING (JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS), vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 41–80, 2010, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/216485/en

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