FORECASTING OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT CHANGES IN NOSHAHR COUNTY USING LUCIA MODEL

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DADASHPOOR H.; ZAREI A.

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Journal: Journal of Urban Research and Planning Year:2013 | Volume:3 | Issue:11 Page(s): 37-58

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Information Journal Paper

Title

FORECASTING OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT CHANGES IN NOSHAHR COUNTY USING LUCIA MODEL

Author(s)

DADASHPOOR H. | ZAREI A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

LAND USE CHANGEQ1

ECONOMIC-SOCIAL DRIVERSQ2

ECOLOGICAL (ENVIRONMENTAL) DRIVERSQ2

LAND USE MODELSQ2

LUCIAQ2

Abstract

Land use planning has been regarded as an important method in field of urban and regional planning. Land use planning tries to recognize the complex interaction between human society and the environment for creating the logical relationship between human development needs and environmental standards. This article aims to answer two fundamental questions about LAND USE CHANGE; include change manner and change position, by use of the LUCIA model that is a consolidated model of economic- social and environmental drivers. According to two-level structure of model, at first level environmental variables have been used as indicator of capacity assessment for changeability values. And at second-level, economic-social variables were reviewed as a key driver for LAND USE CHANGEs. This research paper is an applied research and has been done by descriptive- analytical research method. Data were collected and classified by literature review. The Research's analysis framework is based on the conceptual model of LAND USE CHANGE -LUCIA model. In this research, model was run based on data of Noshahr County and model’s outputs have been analyzed for urban developments. Finally the results show that the around of residential areas -especially dense areas- and the Infrastructure equipment’s around are more talented for LAND USE CHANGE in urban development. According to environmental and social- economic conditions, only fourteen percent (14%) of total areas of the city were detected as suitable conditions for LAND USE CHANGE in urban development.

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APA: Copy

DADASHPOOR, H., & ZAREI, A.. (2013). FORECASTING OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT CHANGES IN NOSHAHR COUNTY USING LUCIA MODEL. RESEARCH AND URBAN PLANNING, 3(11), 37-58. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/220121/en

Vancouver: Copy

DADASHPOOR H., ZAREI A.. FORECASTING OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT CHANGES IN NOSHAHR COUNTY USING LUCIA MODEL. RESEARCH AND URBAN PLANNING[Internet]. 2013;3(11):37-58. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/220121/en

IEEE: Copy

H. DADASHPOOR, and A. ZAREI, “FORECASTING OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT CHANGES IN NOSHAHR COUNTY USING LUCIA MODEL,” RESEARCH AND URBAN PLANNING, vol. 3, no. 11, pp. 37–58, 2013, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/220121/en

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