A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING COSTS OF ROAD TRAFFIC CRASHES IN IRAN

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KAZEMI MOJTABA; SAFARZADEH MAHMOUD; MOVAGHARI HADI; FALLAHZAVAREH MOHSEN

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Journal: Journal of Transportation Engineering Year:2015 | Volume:6 | Issue:4 Page(s): 627-640

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Title

A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING COSTS OF ROAD TRAFFIC CRASHES IN IRAN

Author(s)

KAZEMI MOJTABA | SAFARZADEH MAHMOUD | MOVAGHARI HADI | FALLAHZAVAREH MOHSEN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

COST OF ROAD TRAFFIC FATALITIESQ2

TIME SERIESQ2

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTQ2

COURT AWARD METHODQ2

PRODUCT LOSS METHODQ2

Abstract

Every year, road traffic accidents cause direct and indirect loss in GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT in every community. The present study aims to provide a methodology to estimate the costs of road accident fatalities in Iran. In this research, using different available methods namely the “Court Award” and the “Lost Product”, the average costs of individual road traffic fatalities have been determined, separately. The annual road fatality rate in the road network has also been estimated using 12 ARIMA(3,0,0)×(1,0,0) model of TIME SERIES. Combining the each separateestimate of road fatality cost with the number of road traffic fatalities in a single measure, two measures of lost in GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT due to road fatalities have been estimated. Finally comparing the results with the observed number of fatalities for the next years, the two methods of fatality cost estimation have been compared in terms of validity. In other hand, used method is statistical economic. Analysis of road accident fatalities by the “Court Award” method shows a descending trend of loss in GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT followed by an ascending trend, during 2010 to 2012. Application of “Lost Product” method of road fatality cost estimation on the same database however, indicated a totally descending trend. Finally and Comparing the estimates of the two methods inferred that the “Lost Product” is a more promising method in estimating the GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT loss due to road traffic fatalities, since the lost amount in this method remains proportional to the number of road traffic fatalities.

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APA: Copy

KAZEMI, MOJTABA, SAFARZADEH, MAHMOUD, MOVAGHARI, HADI, & FALLAHZAVAREH, MOHSEN. (2015). A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING COSTS OF ROAD TRAFFIC CRASHES IN IRAN. JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING, 6(4), 627-640. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/223954/en

Vancouver: Copy

KAZEMI MOJTABA, SAFARZADEH MAHMOUD, MOVAGHARI HADI, FALLAHZAVAREH MOHSEN. A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING COSTS OF ROAD TRAFFIC CRASHES IN IRAN. JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING[Internet]. 2015;6(4):627-640. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/223954/en

IEEE: Copy

MOJTABA KAZEMI, MAHMOUD SAFARZADEH, HADI MOVAGHARI, and MOHSEN FALLAHZAVAREH, “A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING COSTS OF ROAD TRAFFIC CRASHES IN IRAN,” JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 627–640, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/223954/en

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