T FUTUROLOGY OF IRAN'S DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES

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MOSHFEQ MAHMUD; HUSSEINI QURBAN

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Paper Information

Journal: MARIFAT I FARHANGI AND EJTEMAII Year:2012 | Volume:4 | Issue:1 (13) Page(s): 21-42

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Information Journal Paper

Title

T FUTUROLOGY OF IRAN'S DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES

Author(s)

MOSHFEQ MAHMUD | HUSSEINI QURBAN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

POPULATION PREDICTIONQ2

LABOR FORCEQ2

SENIORITYQ1

NUMBER OF POPULATIONQ2

Abstract

The present paper investigates the futurology of Iran's population, in which a demographic-documentary analysis is used as its method. The most recent demographic predictions (2012) for world's countries, made by United Nations Population Division, indicate that Iran's population, according to three scenarios of UN (lower level, medium level and higher level), will reach to 87.7, 96.8 and 106 million people, respectively. According to the adjusted scenario which is proposed by the authors of this paper, Iran's population will reach to 91 million people in 1420 (2041).The received results indicate that under replacement level fertility (less than 2.1 infants born alive for each mother) will continue in Iran, which highlights the necessity of futuristic planning for managing SENIORITY in the country. Improvement and reinforcement of family foundation and promotion of religious and Islamic values which are mostly family-based can help to promote the level of fertility and amend the age pyramid of population.

Cites

FUTURES STUDIES OF IRAN’S ISSUES BY STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS METHOD

References

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APA: Copy

MOSHFEQ, MAHMUD, & HUSSEINI, QURBAN. (2012). T FUTUROLOGY OF IRAN'S DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES. MARIFAT I FARHANGI AND EJTEMAII, 4(1 (13)), 21-42. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/235444/en

Vancouver: Copy

MOSHFEQ MAHMUD, HUSSEINI QURBAN. T FUTUROLOGY OF IRAN'S DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES. MARIFAT I FARHANGI AND EJTEMAII[Internet]. 2012;4(1 (13)):21-42. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/235444/en

IEEE: Copy

MAHMUD MOSHFEQ, and QURBAN HUSSEINI, “T FUTUROLOGY OF IRAN'S DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES,” MARIFAT I FARHANGI AND EJTEMAII, vol. 4, no. 1 (13), pp. 21–42, 2012, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/235444/en

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