FORECASTING AMOUNT OF IRAN'S AGRICULTURAL EXPORT: USAGE OF STATISTIC MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN)

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JALAEE SEYED ABDOLMAJID; PAKRAVAN M.R.; GILANPOUR O.; ASNA ASHARI H.; MEHRABI BOSHRABADI H.

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Journal: Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Year:2011 | Volume:18 | Issue:4 (72) Page(s): 115-138

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Title

FORECASTING AMOUNT OF IRAN'S AGRICULTURAL EXPORT: USAGE OF STATISTIC MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN)

Author(s)

Keywords

EXPORT OF AGRICULTURAL PARTQ2

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKSQ3

FORECASTINGQ2

VAR METHODQ3

Abstract

Forecasting macro-economic variables is an important concern to programmers, policy makers and economic enterprise. This is why different models which have been created are competing with each other to best realize future projection.Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is particularly out of many methods which used widespread recently. We have done so in this study to estimate Iran’s agricultural commodities export model for the period of 2008-2013 by applying econometrics and ANN modeling. To this end, we have used 1965-2001 time series in order to prediction and training the network, and at same time we have used 2002-2007data to verity accuracy of the results. The results showed that the pioneer ANN has less error and much better performance to estimate volume of Iran agricultural export comparing to VAR METHOD of econometrics.

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APA: Copy

JALAEE, SEYED ABDOLMAJID, PAKRAVAN, M.R., GILANPOUR, O., ASNA ASHARI, H., & MEHRABI BOSHRABADI, H.. (2011). FORECASTING AMOUNT OF IRAN'S AGRICULTURAL EXPORT: USAGE OF STATISTIC MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN). EQTESAD-E KESHAVARZI VA TOWSE'E, 18(4 (72)), 115-138. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/24608/en

Vancouver: Copy

JALAEE SEYED ABDOLMAJID, PAKRAVAN M.R., GILANPOUR O., ASNA ASHARI H., MEHRABI BOSHRABADI H.. FORECASTING AMOUNT OF IRAN'S AGRICULTURAL EXPORT: USAGE OF STATISTIC MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN). EQTESAD-E KESHAVARZI VA TOWSE'E[Internet]. 2011;18(4 (72)):115-138. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/24608/en

IEEE: Copy

SEYED ABDOLMAJID JALAEE, M.R. PAKRAVAN, O. GILANPOUR, H. ASNA ASHARI, and H. MEHRABI BOSHRABADI, “FORECASTING AMOUNT OF IRAN'S AGRICULTURAL EXPORT: USAGE OF STATISTIC MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN),” EQTESAD-E KESHAVARZI VA TOWSE'E, vol. 18, no. 4 (72), pp. 115–138, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/24608/en

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