PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT USING THE FUZZY FAULT TREE ANALYSIS BASED ON TWO TYPES OF FAILURE POSSIBILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN PROCESS INDUSTRIES

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BEKBAKI ABBAS; NEBHANI NADER; ANVARIPOUR BAGHER; SHIRALI GHOLAM ABBAS

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Journal: JOURNAL OF OCCUPATIONAL HYGIENE ENGINEERING Year:2017 | Volume:4 | Issue:2 Page(s): 41-52

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Title

PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT USING THE FUZZY FAULT TREE ANALYSIS BASED ON TWO TYPES OF FAILURE POSSIBILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN PROCESS INDUSTRIES

Author(s)

BEKBAKI ABBAS | NEBHANI NADER | ANVARIPOUR BAGHER | SHIRALI GHOLAM ABBAS | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

EXPERT JUDGMENTQ1

FUZZY LOGICQ1

FAILURE OCCURRENCE PROBABILITYQ1

FAILURE POSSIBILITYQ1

FUZZY FAULT TREE ANALYSISQ1

Abstract

Background and Objective: Probabilistic risk assessment through fault tree analysis is an effective tool to estimate the probability of hazardous event occurrence in chemical process industries. The probability of failure occurrence for basic events is not often available in process industries. The aim of this study was to calculate the basic event FAILURE OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY when these events have no precise failure data.Materials and Methods: In this study, the proposed risk assessment framework was based on two fuzzy-based approaches, including five and six scales. Firstly, the fault tree diagram was constructed using the risk identification methods. Subsequently, the FAILURE OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY of the basic events were calculated by applying the two types of FAILURE POSSIBILITY distributions. Finally, the critical minimal cut sets were ranked using the importance measure analysis.Results: According to the results, the failure occurrence probabilities calculated by the five-scale and six-scale approaches for the 32 basic events were closed to each other. The occurrence probability of the top event calculated by the five-scale and six-scale approaches were 3.64E-04 and 4.76E-04 per year, respectively. After ranking the minimal cut sets based on their calculated importance measures, the process failures were determined as the critical causes of top event.Conclusion: As the findings indicated, the fuzzy-based approach seems to be a good alternative for the conventional Fault tree analysis approach for dealing with the basic events, which have no failure rate data for obtaining the failure occurrence probabilities. This study confirmed the consistency of fuzzy-based approach for the assessment of the basic event failure occurrence probabilities.

Cites

Risk Assessment and Ranking through Integration Failure Mode and Effects Analysis and Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making in an Interval Valued Fuzzy Environment: A Case Study in Hydraulic Pump Industry

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APA: Copy

BEKBAKI, ABBAS, NEBHANI, NADER, ANVARIPOUR, BAGHER, & SHIRALI, GHOLAM ABBAS. (2017). PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT USING THE FUZZY FAULT TREE ANALYSIS BASED ON TWO TYPES OF FAILURE POSSIBILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN PROCESS INDUSTRIES. JOURNAL OF OCCUPATIONAL HYGIENE ENGINEERING, 4(2 ), 41-52. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/253420/en

Vancouver: Copy

BEKBAKI ABBAS, NEBHANI NADER, ANVARIPOUR BAGHER, SHIRALI GHOLAM ABBAS. PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT USING THE FUZZY FAULT TREE ANALYSIS BASED ON TWO TYPES OF FAILURE POSSIBILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN PROCESS INDUSTRIES. JOURNAL OF OCCUPATIONAL HYGIENE ENGINEERING[Internet]. 2017;4(2 ):41-52. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/253420/en

IEEE: Copy

ABBAS BEKBAKI, NADER NEBHANI, BAGHER ANVARIPOUR, and GHOLAM ABBAS SHIRALI, “PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT USING THE FUZZY FAULT TREE ANALYSIS BASED ON TWO TYPES OF FAILURE POSSIBILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN PROCESS INDUSTRIES,” JOURNAL OF OCCUPATIONAL HYGIENE ENGINEERING, vol. 4, no. 2 , pp. 41–52, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/253420/en

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