PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND FORM METHOD TO CALCULATE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE FOR CONCRETE GRAVITY DAMS IN SLIDING FAILURE MODE UNDER STATIC LOADING

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MIAR NAEIMI F.; AZIZIAN GH.; AKBARI GH.

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Journal: Modares Civil Engineering journal Year:2016 | Volume:16 | Issue:3 Page(s): 227-240

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Title

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND FORM METHOD TO CALCULATE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE FOR CONCRETE GRAVITY DAMS IN SLIDING FAILURE MODE UNDER STATIC LOADING

Author(s)

MIAR NAEIMI F. | AZIZIAN GH. | AKBARI GH. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CONCRETE DAMQ2

SLIDING FAILUREQ2

MONTE CARLOQ1

FORMQ2

Abstract

Failure of a concrete gravity dam will cause inevitable human loss and financial damages. In this study SARIYAR concrete gravity dam, located in turkey was chosen as a case study, to investigate the probability of the dam’s SLIDING FAILURE in various conditions. The most important reason of SLIDING FAILURE in a CONCRETE DAM is lateral and uplift loads, caused by increase in the level of reservoir water. Different scenarios were considered which might happen to a dam, simulating all the possible water levels of reservoir. Afterwards, the probability of failure and reliability index were calculated with MONTE CARLO simulation and FORM method, in all conditions and comparison was carried out between the results. The influence of the Number of Simulations (NOS) in the MONTE CARLO method was also discussed. Results showed that, in some cases, the system resistance was much more than the loads, and the limit state function had a significant distance from the samples. In such states, MONTE CARLO was unable to calculate the probability of failure with each NOS. However, FORM method could obtain the Reliability Index (b) in these situations. It was found out that these values were far from the reality. With increase in the forces, the degree of precision of the responses from MONTE CARLO grew high. The probability of failure generated by FORM method was less than that in reality. The failure of a concrete gravity dam will cause inevitable human loss and financial damages. In this study SARIYAR concrete gravity dam, located in turkey was chosen as a case study, to investigate the probability of the dam’s SLIDING FAILURE in various conditions. The most important reason in SLIDING FAILURE of a CONCRETE DAM is lateral and uplift loads, caused by increase in the reservoir water level. Different scenarios were considered which might happen to a dam, simulating all the possible reservoir water levels. Thereafter, the probability of failure and reliability index was calculated with MONTE CARLO simulation and FORM method, in all conditions and the results were compared to each other. The effect of the Number of Simulations (NOS) in the MONTE CARLO method was also discussed. Results showed that, in some cases, the resistance of the system was much more than the loads, and the limit state function had a significant distance from the samples. In such states, MONTE CARLO was unable to calculate the probability of failure with each NOS, while FORM method managed to obtain the Reliability Index (b). It became clear that these values were far from the reality.

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APA: Copy

MIAR NAEIMI, F., AZIZIAN, GH., & AKBARI, GH.. (2016). PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND FORM METHOD TO CALCULATE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE FOR CONCRETE GRAVITY DAMS IN SLIDING FAILURE MODE UNDER STATIC LOADING. MODARES CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL, 16(3), 227-240. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/256674/en

Vancouver: Copy

MIAR NAEIMI F., AZIZIAN GH., AKBARI GH.. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND FORM METHOD TO CALCULATE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE FOR CONCRETE GRAVITY DAMS IN SLIDING FAILURE MODE UNDER STATIC LOADING. MODARES CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL[Internet]. 2016;16(3):227-240. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/256674/en

IEEE: Copy

F. MIAR NAEIMI, GH. AZIZIAN, and GH. AKBARI, “PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND FORM METHOD TO CALCULATE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE FOR CONCRETE GRAVITY DAMS IN SLIDING FAILURE MODE UNDER STATIC LOADING,” MODARES CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 227–240, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/256674/en

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