A New Framework for Scenario Development to Strategic Issues; A Case-Study of Syria Crisis` Future Scenarios

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PEDRAM ABDULRAHIM; Zali Salman

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Journal: POLITICAL STUDIES OF ISLAMIC WORLD Year:2018 | Volume:7 | Issue:2 (26) Page(s): 1-26

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Information Journal Paper

Title

A New Framework for Scenario Development to Strategic Issues; A Case-Study of Syria Crisis` Future Scenarios

Author(s)

PEDRAM ABDULRAHIM | Zali Salman | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Scenario DevelopmentQ1

Scenario AnalysisQ1

Deductive ApproachQ1

Global Business Network (GBN)Q1

Syria CrisesQ1

Future of Syria ScenariosQ1

Abstract

The objective of this article is to present a new framework in strategic issues based on Scenario Development methodology. Scenario is a look with logical consistency to the future aimed to dealing with future uncertainties. Scrutinizing the cardinal share of scenarios to our future prosperity, returns to our ability in transmuting the uncertainty to a prominence source and is essential. Given the fact that each of the strategic issues has a specific context and a specific pathway for the development of a scenario, it is necessary to present a new framework. The methodology of this research is based on the methodology of the field of futures studies based on the Deductive Approach and using the improvement of the model of the global business network (GBN). The findings of the research indicate a native framework in strategic issues using the step-by-step framework and the 9-step scenario (identification of actors, identifying the components and influential factors, identifying drivers, identifying uncertainties, drawing up a general perspective, Determining key uncertainties, Describing scenarios, evaluating scenarios, and reviewing and revising scenarios) in order to illustrate this, scenarios of Syria future crises include Passing through the crisis, Maintaining a trench, Breaking the siege, Maintaining the ruin and Conquering Damascus are case studied.

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APA: Copy

PEDRAM, ABDULRAHIM, & Zali, Salman. (2018). A New Framework for Scenario Development to Strategic Issues; A Case-Study of Syria Crisis` Future Scenarios. POLITICAL STUDIES OF ISLAMIC WORLD, 7(2 (26) ), 1-26. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/259907/en

Vancouver: Copy

PEDRAM ABDULRAHIM, Zali Salman. A New Framework for Scenario Development to Strategic Issues; A Case-Study of Syria Crisis` Future Scenarios. POLITICAL STUDIES OF ISLAMIC WORLD[Internet]. 2018;7(2 (26) ):1-26. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/259907/en

IEEE: Copy

ABDULRAHIM PEDRAM, and Salman Zali, “A New Framework for Scenario Development to Strategic Issues; A Case-Study of Syria Crisis` Future Scenarios,” POLITICAL STUDIES OF ISLAMIC WORLD, vol. 7, no. 2 (26) , pp. 1–26, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/259907/en

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