THE AVERAGE WAIT TIME TO SEE A TREND IN THE PRICES OF GOLD COIN BY USING PARTIALLY EXCHANGEABLE SEQUENCE

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PARHAM GHOLAMALI; AZIZI BAHAREH

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Paper Information

Journal: Iranian Journal of Economic Research Year:2013 | Volume:18 | Issue:55 Page(s): 141-158

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Information Journal Paper

Title

THE AVERAGE WAIT TIME TO SEE A TREND IN THE PRICES OF GOLD COIN BY USING PARTIALLY EXCHANGEABLE SEQUENCE

Author(s)

PARHAM GHOLAMALI | AZIZI BAHAREH | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

RUNSQ2

EXCHANGEABLEQ2

MARKOV CHAINQ2

PARTIALLY EXCHANGEABLEQ2

Abstract

In this article, the monthly data of Bahar Azadi gold coin price is studied by using Partially EXCHANGEABLE Sequences for a period of 27 years. The data based on the increasing or decreasing prices in comparison to the previous month generate a sequence of success and failure RUNS. The goal is to obtain the trend of ascending or descending of coin price by using RUNS. First, we verify partially exchangeability and determine the order of dependency data by using Monte Carlo simulation. Then, we determine the expected waiting time to achieve the first success RUNS of different lengths. The results show that the data are partially EXCHANGEABLE with order one, and the average time to observe an increasing trend of the price of coin for the maximum six months is predictable.

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APA: Copy

PARHAM, GHOLAMALI, & AZIZI, BAHAREH. (2013). THE AVERAGE WAIT TIME TO SEE A TREND IN THE PRICES OF GOLD COIN BY USING PARTIALLY EXCHANGEABLE SEQUENCE. IRANIAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 18(55), 141-158. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/2640/en

Vancouver: Copy

PARHAM GHOLAMALI, AZIZI BAHAREH. THE AVERAGE WAIT TIME TO SEE A TREND IN THE PRICES OF GOLD COIN BY USING PARTIALLY EXCHANGEABLE SEQUENCE. IRANIAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH[Internet]. 2013;18(55):141-158. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/2640/en

IEEE: Copy

GHOLAMALI PARHAM, and BAHAREH AZIZI, “THE AVERAGE WAIT TIME TO SEE A TREND IN THE PRICES OF GOLD COIN BY USING PARTIALLY EXCHANGEABLE SEQUENCE,” IRANIAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH, vol. 18, no. 55, pp. 141–158, 2013, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/2640/en

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