STUDY OF DRY-WET PERIODS AND POSSIBILITY OF FORCASTING THEM BY USING BOLT-WINTERS TIME SERIES MODEL IN BORMOZGAN PROVIENCE

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AZIZI GHASEM; ROSHAN A.A.

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Journal: GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Year:2006 | Volume:20 | Issue:4 (79) Page(s): 48-63

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Title

STUDY OF DRY-WET PERIODS AND POSSIBILITY OF FORCASTING THEM BY USING BOLT-WINTERS TIME SERIES MODEL IN BORMOZGAN PROVIENCE

Author(s)

AZIZI GHASEM | ROSHAN A.A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

DROUGHTQ2

Z INDEXQ2

TIME SERIESQ4

HOLT-WINTERS MODELQ2

Abstract

This research has been done in part of Hormozgan province, study time variations in precipitation, and to survey dry-wet periods and the possibility of forecasting them in future. We used Z standard Index to calculate DROUGHT, wetness, duration, and the rate of precipitation. Then, by using TIME SERIES Holt Wintes Model, we predicted the weather for the following years. Monthly rain data of three synoptic stations were used: Bandar Abas, Minab and Bandar Lengeh, during thirty seven (1966-2002) years. Results indicate the occurrence of three DROUGHT and two wet periods. It was also revealed that DROUGHTs will be weak or medium with long duration, while wet years will be of short life. Based on TIME SERIES Holt Winters Model, the investigation of the observed and predicted data values, shows two decrease and increase sinuous cycles. The first includes 20, (1966-1985), and the second 17, (1986-2002), years; prediction of the decrease of the next two years, almost completes this cycle.

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APA: Copy

AZIZI, GHASEM, & ROSHAN, A.A.. (2006). STUDY OF DRY-WET PERIODS AND POSSIBILITY OF FORCASTING THEM BY USING BOLT-WINTERS TIME SERIES MODEL IN BORMOZGAN PROVIENCE. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 20(4 (79)), 48-63. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/29780/en

Vancouver: Copy

AZIZI GHASEM, ROSHAN A.A.. STUDY OF DRY-WET PERIODS AND POSSIBILITY OF FORCASTING THEM BY USING BOLT-WINTERS TIME SERIES MODEL IN BORMOZGAN PROVIENCE. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH[Internet]. 2006;20(4 (79)):48-63. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/29780/en

IEEE: Copy

GHASEM AZIZI, and A.A. ROSHAN, “STUDY OF DRY-WET PERIODS AND POSSIBILITY OF FORCASTING THEM BY USING BOLT-WINTERS TIME SERIES MODEL IN BORMOZGAN PROVIENCE,” GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, vol. 20, no. 4 (79), pp. 48–63, 2006, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/29780/en

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