ARIMA MODELING FOR TABRIZ CITY ANNUAL TEMPERATURE

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ASAKEREH H.

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Journal: GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Year:2009 | Volume:24 | Issue:2 (93) Page(s): 3-24

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Title

ARIMA MODELING FOR TABRIZ CITY ANNUAL TEMPERATURE

Author(s)

ASAKEREH H. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

MODELINGQ2

ARIMA MODELQ2

STOCHASTIC PROCESSQ3

ANNUAL TEMPERATUREQ3

TABRIZQ2

Abstract

Statistical methods are efficient and useful tools to perceive and evaluate climate behavior. One of statistical applications in climatology is MODELING of climatic elements behavior. An applied statistic models is ARIMA. In this statistical pattern values are modeled based on their historical behavior modeled. In this paper, the ANNUAL TEMPERATURE of TABRIZ city was modeled during 1951-2005. To forecast Mean while adjusting method of ARIMA have been introduced step by step. The ARIMA (0, 1, 2)can was identified as final pattern based on common MODELING. The first order of difference degree shows a linear trend what is approved by a constant term in co model. According to the ARIMA (0, 1, 2)canthe amount of this trend is 0.033 Ċ par year. The second order of moving average in Indicates that temperature for each year is functioned by stochastic parameters of previous year. Finally, According to the adjusted model, the temperature of 20 year with 95% confidence interval have been calculated.

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APA: Copy

ASAKEREH, H.. (2009). ARIMA MODELING FOR TABRIZ CITY ANNUAL TEMPERATURE. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 24(2 (93)), 3-24. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/29858/en

Vancouver: Copy

ASAKEREH H.. ARIMA MODELING FOR TABRIZ CITY ANNUAL TEMPERATURE. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH[Internet]. 2009;24(2 (93)):3-24. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/29858/en

IEEE: Copy

H. ASAKEREH, “ARIMA MODELING FOR TABRIZ CITY ANNUAL TEMPERATURE,” GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, vol. 24, no. 2 (93), pp. 3–24, 2009, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/29858/en

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