PREDICTION MODEL FOR ANZALI PRECIPITATION BY USING UPPER LEVELS DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES IN CASPIAN SEA

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NOURI HAMID; YASARI T.; GHAVIDEL RAHIMI Y.; MOHAMMADI BAKHTIAR

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Journal: GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Year:2008 | Volume:23 | Issue:2 (89) Page(s): 47-61

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Information Journal Paper

Title

PREDICTION MODEL FOR ANZALI PRECIPITATION BY USING UPPER LEVELS DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES IN CASPIAN SEA

Author(s)

NOURI HAMID | YASARI T. | GHAVIDEL RAHIMI Y. | MOHAMMADI BAKHTIAR | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CASPIAN SEAQ3

ANZALI PRECIPITATIONQ3

PREDICTION MODELSQ3

DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLESQ3

Abstract

Precipitation is one of the most complicated atmospheric phenomena. Condensation nuclei, humidity and uplifting are important in producing cloud and precipitation. CASPIAN SEA, as an important humidity source in the north of Iran can feed humidity into rain systems. In order to survey the synoptic conditions in Anzali station, daily data in upper levels and daily precipitation were provided and DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES were calculated in 1000 to 100 (hpa) levels in 2003 then, precipitation PREDICTION MODELS were estimated using multiple regression analysis and stepwise method for each of Caspian region nodes in varies precipitation groups. At last, final prepared for each of precipitation groups. These models show that the first candidate variable in the precipitation group of higher than 50 mm is vorticity (1000 hpa, 8 node), in the precipitation group of higher than 40 mm is omega (600 hpa, 1 node), in the Geographical Research precipitation group of higher than 30 mm is relative humidity (850 hpa, 22 node) and for total precipitation it is geopotential height (925 hpa, 29 node). The maps show that in the of models, candidate variable particularly uplifting dynamic factors locate on lands. Adjusted R2 for final model is more than %81 for total precipitation.

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APA: Copy

NOURI, HAMID, YASARI, T., GHAVIDEL RAHIMI, Y., & MOHAMMADI, BAKHTIAR. (2008). PREDICTION MODEL FOR ANZALI PRECIPITATION BY USING UPPER LEVELS DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES IN CASPIAN SEA. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 23(2 (89)), 47-61. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/30061/en

Vancouver: Copy

NOURI HAMID, YASARI T., GHAVIDEL RAHIMI Y., MOHAMMADI BAKHTIAR. PREDICTION MODEL FOR ANZALI PRECIPITATION BY USING UPPER LEVELS DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES IN CASPIAN SEA. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH[Internet]. 2008;23(2 (89)):47-61. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/30061/en

IEEE: Copy

HAMID NOURI, T. YASARI, Y. GHAVIDEL RAHIMI, and BAKHTIAR MOHAMMADI, “PREDICTION MODEL FOR ANZALI PRECIPITATION BY USING UPPER LEVELS DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES IN CASPIAN SEA,” GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, vol. 23, no. 2 (89), pp. 47–61, 2008, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/30061/en

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