MANAGEMENT OF RISK IN FLUCTUATION OF OIL PRICE IN IRAN

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EBRAHIMI M.; GHANBARI A.R.

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Paper Information

Journal: NAMEH-YE-MOFID Year:2007 | Volume:12 | Issue:1 (57 ECONOMICS) Page(s): 139-162

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Information Journal Paper

Title

MANAGEMENT OF RISK IN FLUCTUATION OF OIL PRICE IN IRAN

Author(s)

EBRAHIMI M. | GHANBARI A.R. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

RISK MANAGEMENTQ1

FUTURE CONTACTQ2

BV-GARCH MODULEQ3

OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONQ3

OIL REVENUESQ2

Abstract

The price of crude oil is affected by different factors, and it fluctuates a lot, that produce risk of the price. Therefore RISK MANAGEMENT is a complex process and includes identification, evaluation, selection of optimum method, planning for execution and supervising the activities. Risk coverage is one of the strategies for management of risk. This in itself needs financial tools. Most businessmen in world oil market use these tools to avoid the effects of price fluctuation. This paper deals with risk coverage strategies in relation to future contracts for Iranian crude oil. At first the aim is to cover the risk will be set forth & then by estimating the number of optimum future contracts, the coverage rate in two forms of static & dynamic is estimated and finally for selecting the best type of contract & module, statistical, economic & econometric method have been used.The results have shown that, using future contract, reduces the risk fluctuation by 80 to 96 percent, and efficiency of contract is increased by their duration as a result ,future contract with four months duration is identified best for reduction of risk. Also static coverage rate for its optimizing effect has given a better result.

Cites

HEDGING OF OIL REVENUES BY USING FUTURE CONTRACTS: A CASE STUDY OF IRAN

References

LOSSES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF OIL REVENUES IN ECONOMIC GROWTH & THE NECESSITY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE FUND

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APA: Copy

EBRAHIMI, M., & GHANBARI, A.R.. (2007). MANAGEMENT OF RISK IN FLUCTUATION OF OIL PRICE IN IRAN. NAMEH-YE-MOFID, 12(1 (57 ECONOMICS)), 139-162. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/3594/en

Vancouver: Copy

EBRAHIMI M., GHANBARI A.R.. MANAGEMENT OF RISK IN FLUCTUATION OF OIL PRICE IN IRAN. NAMEH-YE-MOFID[Internet]. 2007;12(1 (57 ECONOMICS)):139-162. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/3594/en

IEEE: Copy

M. EBRAHIMI, and A.R. GHANBARI, “MANAGEMENT OF RISK IN FLUCTUATION OF OIL PRICE IN IRAN,” NAMEH-YE-MOFID, vol. 12, no. 1 (57 ECONOMICS), pp. 139–162, 2007, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/3594/en

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