The Evaluation of Allocating National Development Fund's Resources to Economic Sectors: Structural Macro-Econometric Modeling

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NOFERESTI MOHAMMAD; ABDOLAHI MASOUD

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Paper Information

Journal: JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH) Year:2018 | Volume:18 | Issue:1 Page(s): 107-125

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Title

The Evaluation of Allocating National Development Fund's Resources to Economic Sectors: Structural Macro-Econometric Modeling

Author(s)

NOFERESTI MOHAMMAD | ABDOLAHI MASOUD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

National Development FundQ1

Structural Macro-econometric ModelQ2

Economic growthQ2

Dynamic simulationQ2

ARDL approachQ2

Abstract

In this study, the allocation of resources of National Development Fund (NDF) to economic sectors in foreign currency and Rial is evaluated by making a Structural Macro-econometric Model that expresses the reality of Irans economy as much as possible. This model consists of 45 behavioral equations, 28 connecting equations and 88 identities. Behavioral equations are estimated by the ARDL approach in Eviews 9 software using annual data from 1959 to 2014. According to Theils U statistic and root mean square error (RMSPE), the simulation of endogenous variables indicates that model gives a good explanation of Irans economy mechanism. Regarding different scenarios for how to allocate resources of National Development Fund to different economic sectors, simulation results over the 2011-2014 period show that if 80% of NDFs resources is distributed in proportion to the share of sector's investment in total investment in foreign currency and remaining 20% is allocated equally to agriculture and industry sectors in Rial, the highest rate of Economic growth will be realized.

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APA: Copy

NOFERESTI, MOHAMMAD, & ABDOLAHI, MASOUD. (2018). The Evaluation of Allocating National Development Fund's Resources to Economic Sectors: Structural Macro-Econometric Modeling. JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH), 18(1 ), 107-125. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/367291/en

Vancouver: Copy

NOFERESTI MOHAMMAD, ABDOLAHI MASOUD. The Evaluation of Allocating National Development Fund's Resources to Economic Sectors: Structural Macro-Econometric Modeling. JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH)[Internet]. 2018;18(1 ):107-125. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/367291/en

IEEE: Copy

MOHAMMAD NOFERESTI, and MASOUD ABDOLAHI, “The Evaluation of Allocating National Development Fund's Resources to Economic Sectors: Structural Macro-Econometric Modeling,” JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH), vol. 18, no. 1 , pp. 107–125, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/367291/en

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