Dependence structure and portfolio risk in Iran exchange market by using GARCH-EVT-Copula method

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GHAFFARI FARHAD; fathi sahar

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Paper Information

Journal: FINANCIAL ENGINEERING AND SECURITIES MANAGEMENT (PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT) Year:2020 | Volume:11 | Issue:42 Page(s): 302-332

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Title

Dependence structure and portfolio risk in Iran exchange market by using GARCH-EVT-Copula method

Author(s)

GHAFFARI FARHAD | fathi sahar | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Dependence structureQ1

Portfolio riskQ2

Value at Risk (VaR)Q2

Conditional VaR (CVaR)Q1

Extreme value theory (EVT)Q1

COPULAQ1

GARCHQ1

Abstract

In this research, the GARCH-EVT-COPULA method is investigated to determine the dependency structure and Portfolio risk estimation on the foreign exchange market data in Iran. GARCH-EVT models are used to mariginal distribution of each of four currency returns series. For the joint model, we choose five copuls with different Dependence structure such as Frank, Clayton, Gumble, Normal and t-Student COPULAs. In this research Portfolio risk is measured using VaR and CVaR. The statistical sample of this study is the daily exchange rate of USD, EURO, Pound and AED for the free market with 5 working days from September to the end of 1396. Based on the results of the research, using the Akaike information criterion values, the t-student function is the best fitted COPULA model for investigating the dependency structure. Exchange rates have the same upper and lower tail dependencies. Accordingly, in the markets for boom (severe positive) and stagnation (severe negative), the dependence between the two exchange rates is the same.

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APA: Copy

GHAFFARI, FARHAD, & fathi, sahar. (2020). Dependence structure and portfolio risk in Iran exchange market by using GARCH-EVT-Copula method. FINANCIAL ENGINEERING AND SECURITIES MANAGEMENT (PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT), 11(42 ), 302-332. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/369198/en

Vancouver: Copy

GHAFFARI FARHAD, fathi sahar. Dependence structure and portfolio risk in Iran exchange market by using GARCH-EVT-Copula method. FINANCIAL ENGINEERING AND SECURITIES MANAGEMENT (PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT)[Internet]. 2020;11(42 ):302-332. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/369198/en

IEEE: Copy

FARHAD GHAFFARI, and sahar fathi, “Dependence structure and portfolio risk in Iran exchange market by using GARCH-EVT-Copula method,” FINANCIAL ENGINEERING AND SECURITIES MANAGEMENT (PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT), vol. 11, no. 42 , pp. 302–332, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/369198/en

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